World Cup: Quarters

1) Quick recap of Round of Sixteen: markets had winner in 6 of 8 games, with Russia in a big upset over Spain and Sweden a narrow underdog beating Switzerland. 2) Quarterfinals (probabilities will update in real-time here): England is 68% over Sweden, France is 67% over Uruguay, Croatia is 62% over Russia, and Brazil 61% Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180704: Declaration of Independence

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180704: "When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle Read more

Bashful Antisemites

I will block two types of tweeters, people who send: (1) death threats and (2) Irrelevant, ad hominem, antisemitic attacks. I still believe that Twitter can be used to talk with people with different view. As people as ask me questions about things I have written, I try to reply and engage. Hopefully, blocking a Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180703: Trump is the Swamp

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180703: 1) Republican plan to undermine the Census may get stopped: New York Attorney General Underwood, "In a major win for our office, a judge just found “strong” evidence the Trump admin acted in bad faith in adding a citizenship question to the Census—and ordered the federal govt to produce Read more

The Progressive Pendulum 2018: Flipping Fullerton

This is part 2 of the PredictWise series on congressional districts that are seen as competitive in the 2018 election according to PredictWise and Cook: The PredictWise Progressive Pendulum, with new entries coming right here on PredictWise every Tuesday. Instead of the ins-and-outs of the horse-race, this series sheds light on the ideological landscape in these districts. Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180702: There is no deal with North Korea

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180702: 1) There is no deal with North Korea, just concessions for nothing: President Trump met with leader of North Korea giving him photo-ops he wanted and agreed to suspect joint-exercises with South Korea. Then Trump claimed North Korea was denuclearizing, but North Korea is building more facilities proving Trump got nothing Read more

Post Mortem: 27th Congressional District in Texas

TX-27 Special Elections: TapResearch/PredictWise predict winner correctly, and two-party vote share among leading candidates very well.   TapResearch and PredictWise ran a poll in TX-27 before the special election to replace Blake Farenthold (yes, this guy below who resigned in disgrace over an ethics investigation and allegations of sexually harassing staffers, and likes to wear, Read more

World Cup: Round of Sixteen

The World Cup market-data page now includes the market-prices for getting to each round. These will update in real-time as games progress, but a few things: 1) Round of Sixteen: Uruguay 50% over Portugal 50%, France 59% over Argentina 41%, Brazil 79% over Mexico 21%, Belgium 85% over Japan 15%, Spain 78% over Russia 22%, Read more

PredictWise Daily 20180628: Another Sad Day

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180628. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today: 1) Another mass shooting: 96 people die each day from gun violence in the Read more

27th Congressional District in Texas: Special Elections

The 27th Congressional District has not been at the forefront of national news, after RuberDucky-pajama-wearing Blake Farenthold resigned, that is. Only few know that this minority-majority district holds special elections on Saturday, June 30th. TapResearch has teamed up with PredictWise to shed light on the political compass in this district, leveraging TapResearch’s innovative ways to collect Read more