Russia Collusion

Every day people (i.e., trolls) tweet at me about how President Trump did not collude with and/or is not compromised to Russia (and/or another foreign power). Reminding everyone of the overwhelming amount of evidence of the relationship between Team Trump and Russia is boring, but important. So, here is a post that I will keep Read more

Racial Resentment

In the next few weeks we will start rolling out access to a large database of projections we have been compiling: 200+ questions, monthly, modeled to 1,000+ demographic combinations, at all 435 house districts, 50 states, 1 nation. Included in this is 10 "value-frame" or psychometrics (along with 11 issues clusters, 2 economic clusters, approval, vote choices, Read more

The Democratic Party has a Messaging Problem

When the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare) was signed into law, on March 23, 2010, Democrats had ostensibly mastered a difficult task – pass a massive domestic spending bill, pushing the bounds of progressive legislation, that was at odds with public opinion. It was unpopular with Republican voters who chaffed at the Essential Benefits requirement Read more

Wikileaks Get Antisemetic

I am very accustom to people tweeting antisemitic things to me. From direct death threats referencing the Holocaust to casual references to power, money, banking. As this is not very interesting, I generally just block antisemites (if I see it) and move onward. But, I was a bit surprised to be trolled by Wikileaks, dropping Read more

Congressional Polling Nearly Perfect

We have run and released polling for three of the special Congressional elections in 2017-2018. Most recently we had the Republican candidate winning Arizona's 8th Congressional District by 6 percentage points: she won by 5.2 percentage points (i.e., we were off by 0.8 percentage points). Early in 2018 we had the Democratic candidate winning Pennsylvania's 18th Read more

Arizona 8 Close, but Democrat Trailing

PredictWise/Pollfish Poll for AZ8 (Pollfish and PredictWise) has Republican Debbie Lesko up 6 percentage points over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the Arizona's 8th District Special Election. We will put the normal caveats that this poll is not as powered as we normally do, but it is the third special Congressional election we have run, and we have been Read more

Regrets, I have had a few

I was getting my PhD in the Business and Public Policy (now call Applied Economics) program at the University of Pennsylvania, when my adviser, Justin Wolfers, got me really into prediction markets (markets that buy and sell contracts on upcoming events, thus created a revealed probability of the outcome). And, as I started learning about how they Read more

Modest Proposal: Democrats Run on Positive Progressive Message

Establishment Democrats have a plan for 2018: nationally unify around an anti-Trump message and then micro-target policy positions by: district and tightly defined demographic clusters. This is not a stated plan, if you asked them I am sure they would claim to have a positive progressive message, but their strategy is very clear from what Read more

DCCC Economic Memo Generally Agrees with US

New Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) polling generally agrees with this earlier post. The memo is written by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) and, for the sake of this post, I will ignore the incredibly stupid and offensive article by Axios. Both GQR and PredictWise agree that the economy is doing fine and Democrats should not try Read more

Democratic Party Has a Message Failure

We ran a poll (PredictWise20180328), on March 27 with 1,000 likely American voters (methods), where we asked policy questions in four different topics: healthcare, taxes, gun control, and immigration. We did focus on detailed policy questions stripped (as much as we can) of partisan cues (e.g., Do you support a universal national registry of all guns and Read more