Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180627. My goal is to write Sundays through Thursdays, publish around 9 PM ET. It will be a short recap of what was most interesting that day. I will limit it to three bullet points. Today:

1) Supreme Court crushed public sector unions: In another 5-4 decision the Supreme Court made it illegal for public sector unions to force dues from non-members, making it very hard to function in a world of free riders. Government and corporations do not negotiate with workers fairly because they have a lot of information that the workers do not (e.g., how dangerous is the job, what is the job security, etc.) and they have market power (e.g., they may be the only employer in the field the employee is trained). Unions help balance the negotiation, but the Supreme Court is gutting them. Also, yesterday’s two other 5-4 decisions: doctors can lie to women about their health, and government can create a Muslim Travel Ban.

2) Justice Kennedy cemented his legacy as a Republican lackey who undermined voting rights and the Supreme Court itself for, possibly, decades: seriously, if he did not want that to be his legacy, he would have hung on another three terms.

3) Democrats learned it could work to run to the center of their electorate: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez did something crazy, she ran on very popular positions (for majority of voters) that sit squarely in Democratic electorate, and won the primary in NY-14.

3.5) Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no knew news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180627: Democrats 59 percent to take the House and Republicans 72 percent to hold the Senate outright and 13 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.