Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180710:

1) President Trump literally does not understand how NATO works. All nations pay dues, but they are relatively small and every nation is good. Otherwise, the goal is 2% defense budgets by 2024. So, no one owes US anything. Media is downplaying the risks that Trump may end NATO, making it so we need to spend more for less security. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1016729137409486853Confused President Trump official statement).

2) Basically, Judge Kavanaugh’s explanation that he legitimately went from one extreme to other extreme on POTUS investigations is actually worse than just admitting he is an opportunistic, hypocritical partisan. It is easy to focus on his insane hypocrisy of backing unlimited absurd inquiries into Democratic presidents, then backing no investigations into Republican presidents. But, Brian Beutler at Crooked has a great piece showing that it is even worse if you assume Judge Kavanaugh has such bad judgment to legitimately back either extreme position, which are both crazy.

Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, at  reasonable rate) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). On Saturday, the Trump administration decided to eliminate mandated payments to insurance companies to further destabilize markets. Crazy thing about this: it may actually end up costing government more money and it adds volatility. It is your classic lose-lose.

Market Watch 20180709: Democrats 60 percent to take the House and Republicans 74 percent to hold the Senate outright and 17 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.