Yesterday, March 5, 2016 was a decent day for Donald Trump, a very good day for Ted Cruz, and very bad day for Marco Rubio.

1) Trump was expected to win three state, but lost Maine to Cruz. Obviously never good to fall short of expectations. But, he did hold onto Louisiana and Kentucky. And, he poised to do well with Mississippi and Michigan on Tuesday, March 8.

2) Cruz had a great night and certainly the main competitor to Trump at this point. But, he still has no path to getting the nomination outright. And, while he will likely have the second most delegates at the convention he will have trouble carrying the floor vote. His positions are the most extreme of any of the candidates (including Trump) and he is personally disliked.

3) Rubio came in distant positions in states he was not expected to challenge. But, perception is important and this looks bad!

4) Election going to second ballot is only 35% or so. Which is high, but did not move that much due to last night.

5) No change in the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton still at 94% to win the nomination.

PredictWise20160306a