Serious people in media and politics need to accept what Republican President Trump is clearly demonstrating with his actions and implicitly stating with his words: he wants to shift the United States from a security agreement with Canada and Europe to one with Russia.
1) Republican President Trump wants to sever United States security agreements with Canada and Europe.
1a) Undermining commitment to NATO. While Trump claims that he does not want to leave NATO, he publicly questions the United States commitment to come to the defense of our NATO allies. That is the entire point of NATO. Once people internally and externally do not believe that everyone in the alliance will come to anyone in the alliance’s defense, NATO literally ceases to exist.
1b) Bullshit demands on NATO. President Trump first demanded everyone in NATO spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense now, rather than in 2024. Then he demanded 4 percent! Neither of these demands were agreed to by NATO, but they were not aimed at strengthening the defensive alliance, but to sow chaos and mistrust.
Whereas point 1a is about US quitting NATO without actually leaving, 1b is about trying to force others to quit. This is a two pronged strategy of ending NATO without actually just leaving.
2) Republican President Trump wants to create a security agreement with Russia. Trump keeps on bringing up the idea of a joint security task force with Russia. People keep on laughing him down, but that is what he wants. It seems outrageous as the greatest security threat to the United States right now is the ongoing cyber-attack by Russia, but obviously Trump does not actually believe that is happening.
3) If Republican President Trump gets eight years in office, this is likely going to happen. Our NATO allies will lose confidence and patience with the United States. And, Trump will get Congress to bend to his wishes. So, it seems useful to have a meaningful debate how fucking stupid this plan really is for the US security and prosperity.
3a) Republicans want to leave NATO in order to avoid war, but leaving NATO would dramatically increase the probability of a land-war in Europe that will almost certainty drag the United States into war. With NATO we have a 100 nearly percent probability of being dragged into land-wars in Europe, as most countries Russia could attack would be NATO. But, due to NATO there is a very low probability of war, because Russia knows we would be obligated to fight. Without NATO, the probability of war goes up dramatically, as Russia feels free to threaten Baltic States. If that escalates we are still pretty likely to end up fighting, even without NATO. Thus, the likelihood of war is much higher and the likelihood of US being in a war is much higher.
3b) Weakened security ties will lead to weakened economic ties and Canada and Europe are much bigger and diverse markets than Russia. Russia a small petro-economy. Canada and Europe are large and diverse economies. Really not much more to say here.
3c) False Dilemma: Trump is painting a false choice between joining with Russia (and abandoning our allies) or nuclear war with Russia. Continuing to dominate them both militarily and economically is also an option. That is one that we have used for 73 years to become the lone world super power.