The Republicans are going to hold on to the House. Our latest forecast has the Republicans controlling 237 seats to 198 seats for the Democrats following this election. After the 2012 election the Republicans controlled 234 seats to 201 seats; we are projecting a gain of 3 seats. In the 2012 election the Democrats receive 59.6 million to 58.2 million votes for 50.6% of the two-party vote. Currently Huffington Post’s Pollster and Real Clear Politics have the national popular House vote at between 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points for the Republicans.
The forecasts are generated with two type of data: fundamental data and the Cook Reports. The fundamental model is very simple: past election results, changes in demographics, and incumbent running. The Cook Reports adds a subjective value that they update every few days. I simply took this data, put it into a probit regression from previous years, and used the coefficients to project for 2014.
What I am going to be following closely on Election Day, besides the exact number of seats, is the national population vote. The Republicans are poised to get a much lower percentage than they did in 2010, just higher than they did in 2012.
Starting 2016 we hope to use district-by-district polling, but until then, this should give a pretty strong prediction for Election Day 2014.