Mitt Romney is considered the likely winner of each one of the first five primary contests, but the judgment of the markets in two of the first three–Iowa and South Carolina–is extremely close. As the likely winner of the first five caucuses and primaries, Romney is, not surprisingly, also the likely winner of the Republican nomination. As of today, the markets give Romney about a 2 out of 3 chance of heading up the Republican ticket in November.

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