Mitt Romney is poised to capture an easy victory tonight in the Illinois primary. The prediction markets currently give the former governor a 97.4 percent chance of winning the state, with Rick Santorum trailing at just 3.2 percent. We’ve seen Santorum overcome long odds before, but not at this steep of a disadvantage going into the day.

The following chart shows the progression of our forecasts, compared with the poll-based forecast that the New York Times’ Nate Silver publishes on the FiveThirtyEight blog:

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