Regardless of what happens tonight, Romney is still the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination at 84.5 percent. That numbers assumes that he will likely lose in Minnesota and has a non-negligible likelihood of finishing third or even fourth in Minnesota.

The main result of Romney’s struggles against the Republican field has not been a lowering of his likelihood of winning the nomination, but a lowering of his likelihood to win the presidency conditional assuming he wins the nomination. Romney’s conditional likelihood of victory against Barack Obama has hit its lowest point since the campaign began in earnest this summer. He is just 41.0 percent likely to defeat Obama, should he face him as the Republican nominee. If it’s any consolation, this is still higher than his Republican challengers.

Thus, it is not surprising that Obama has hit his recent high point, at 60.1 percent; this is his first time being above 60 percent for reelection since June. Not only does his likely Republican challenger appear to be a weakened candidate, he has had a string of news that boosts his likelihood regardless of his opponent. First, economic indicators are moving in the upward. Second, his job approval rating continues to climb; it is now 48.6 according to the latest aggregated trend on RealClearPolitics. This upward movement likely reflects that positive economic trend.

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