PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the last week for Trump, who was in the mid-60’s as voting started in New York on Tuesday, April 19, and a consolidation of a commanding lead by Clinton.

Trump may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (66% likely Trump wins on first ballot). Going into New York Trump was expected to win big (85% to get over 50% of the vote), but he really hurt both rivals with near sweep of the delegates. First, Ted Cruz did not get a single delegate and came in a humbling third place; this hurt his narrative that this was a two-person race. Second, John Kasich came in a very distant second; not building enough momentum to appear as a viable alternative. With at least 89 new delegates, Trump is now at 844 heading into a very favorable: CT, DE, MD, PA, RI April 26 lineup. He is 96% in CT, 98% in DE, 94% in MR, 96% in PA, and 97% in RI. As I keep repeating, Trump is only 47% to get 1,237, but he is still likely to win on the first ballot due to unbound delegates. Has only 47% to cross 1,237, but an additional 24% to be between 1,200 and 1,237.

Cruz heavily favored on second ballot (34% likely to have second ballot). Kasich is not just 3% to win the nomination and Paul Ryan just 1%. Cruz is 20% with just 34% a second or more ballot will occur. Just means conditional on a second ballot, Cruz is about 60% and Trump 30% to win. It is highly probable at this point that the rules committee at the Republican National Convention will limit the ballot to these two candidates. This is why (1) Trump has such a surprisingly high probably of winning, even after losing on the first ballot (2) Kasich and Ryan are such long-shots. They not only need a second ballot, but an open second ballot.

Kasich is 22% to be the Vice-Presidential nominee and Marco Rubio is 12%. Kasich controls 148 delegates and Rubio 171. If either of them dropped out of the race, Trump would probably be able to get some of those delegates on the first ballot. If he is really close to 1,237, a deal with either of these two could seal the nomination for him. Nikki Haley at 8% and Chris Christie at 8% round out the most likely candidates.

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5, Tuesday, April 19
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Clinton is above 90% to win in CT, DE, MD, PA; she is 67% to win RI. There are at least five very viable vice-presidential candidates for Clinton. Julian Castro is the front-runner at 23%. Tom Perez is at 14%, Tim Kaine 11%, Elizabeth Warren at 10%, and Sharrod Brown at 10%.

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5, Tuesday, April 19
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/