PredictWise’s market-based forecasts midday on April 17, 2016: Donald Trump is 62% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 92% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election.

It may be surprising that Trump is still 62% to win the nomination despite all of the doom-and-gloom in the press about him failing or not wanting it. But, Trump has 742 pledged delegates to Ted Cruz’ 529 and he is about to go on a roll.

He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (50% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is heavily favored in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI. He is 98% to win in New York on Tuesday, April 19 and 84% to win with more than 50% of the vote. The more socially liberal Republicans in the Northeast shun Cruz (he did campaign in Iowa on his dislike of New York values) and Republicans have not rallied around John Kasich as an alternative (his huge loss in Wisconsin limits his value a strategic vote). Trump is 25% to win with a majority of delegates, but an additional 25% says he picks up enough unbound delegates. He is 80% to cross 1,150 delegates and 46% to cross 1,200. And, there are still a couple hundred unbound delegates he may get; he just needs to get to 1,237 with pledged and unbound combined.

He may win on the second ballot or more (50% likely to have second ballot). The current rules only allow candidates who have won the majority of delegates in 8 or more states. If that holds, Trump and Cruz will be a tight fight between two men that are not liked by the establishment. The reason that Paul Ryan was falling hard before he dropped out of shadow primary and John Kasich has been falling is the increased probability that this rule holds. If there is a clear two-person race for months, it is going to be harder for the rules committee to toss out this rule and decide per a person that did not run at all or just won their home state. Currently in the 50% chance there is a second ballot: 30% for Cruz, 12% for Trump, and 7% for Kasich. Or the conditional probability of victory: Cruz about 60%, Trump about 25%, and Kasich just 15%. This conditional probability has held steady for weeks.

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Hillary Clinton lost a little steam as she loses primary after primary, but she is favored in NY at 92% and all five April 26 primaries. If that holds, she will have the nomination basically finished before Sanders roars back with a few wins in early May.

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/

The Democratic nominee is now up to 74% to win the general election. The Democrats are 59% to win the senate. And the Republicans are 88% to hold the House of Representatives. On February 1, 2016 the Republicans controlled 2 or 3 branches of the federal government (Congress and Supreme Court). Right now they control 1.5 of 3 (Congress and one-half of Supreme Court). By February 1, 2017 the modal scenario has then controlling just 0.5 of 3 branches (one-half of Congress).