Donald Trump lost badly in Wisconsin (as expected), but he is still the most likely Republican nominee, at 55%.

He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (40% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is still favored in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI; actually his probability went up in all of these states after the Wisconsin loss. The more socially liberal Republicans in the Northeast shun Ted Cruz and Republicans have not rallied around John Kasich as an alternative. Kasich’s underwhelming showing in Wisconsin will likely make it harder for these Northeastern Republicans to vote strategically. And, there are still a couple hundred unbound delegates he may get. He is 25% to win with a majority of delegates, but an additional 15% says he picks up enough unbound delegates.

He may win on the second ballot or more (60% likely to have second ballot). The current rules only allow candidates who have won the majority of delegates in 8 or more states. If that holds, Trump and Cruz will be a tight fight between two men that are not liked by the establishment. The reason that Paul Ryan and John Kasich have been falling in likelihood is the increased probability that this rule holds. If there is a clear two-person race for 2 months, it is going to be harder for the rules committee to toss out this rule and decide per a person that did not run at all or just won their home state. Currently in the 60% chance there is a second ballot: 35% for Cruz, 15% for Trump, and 10% for Ryan or Kasich. Or the conditional probability of victory: Cruz about 60%, Trump about 25%, and Ryan or Kasich just 15%.

PredictWise20160411b

Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Hillary Clinton lost a little steam with her 7th straight loss, but is still heavily favored, 88%, to recover with a win in New York on April 19. Her delegate lead is still very hard for Bernie Sanders to overcome.

PredictWise20160411a

Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 5
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/

The Democratic nominee is now up to 73% to win the general election. The Democrats are 63% to win the senate. And the Republicans are 88% to hold the House of Representatives. On February 1, 2016 the Republicans controlled 2 or 3 branches of the federal government (Congress and Supreme Court). Right now they control 1.5 of 3 (Congress and one-half of Supreme Court). By February 1, 2017 the modal scenario has then controlling just 0.5 of 3 branches (one-half of Congress).