Donald Trump had a very bad week last week, but is still the favored to win the Republican nomination. While the Republican elites do not favor his nomination, there are two key shifts after this week. First, polling in Wisconsin, which votes on Tuesday April 5, is starting to crumble, leaving him potentially further short of the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot without any unbound delegates. Second, there is increased chatter of blocking him from the nomination, regardless of his quantity of pledged delegates. South Carolina Republican party has even broached the subject of clawing back their pledged delegates.

Trump’s bad week is heavily recounted elsewhere, but a few key points. First, on Tuesday, his (male) campaign manager was charged for assaulting a female reporter. Second, also on Tuesday, he seemed confused by nuclear proliferation. Third, on Wednesday through Friday, he muddled his way through the abortion debate.

But, he is still the most likely nominee for two reasons. First, he may win on the first ballot with enough delegates. He is still favored in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI. These states are really bad for Ted Cruz and Republicans have not yet rallied around John Kasich. And, there are still a couple hundred unbound delegates he may get. Second, it is not clear if Republican delegates would rally around Cruz. Some elites are push him, but many are still firmly against him. And, the delegates are a mixture of elites and non-elites (as well as we can define either group). That is why the “Trump” line below is still above the “Trump 1st Ballot” line. He still about 25% to win, conditional on a 2nd or more ballot.

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, March 22
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Bernie Sanders is very likely to carry Wisconsin, but, Hillary Clinton still has a big delegate lead and New York (probably).

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Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, March 22
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/

But, here is one of the most interesting charts of the day. The reason that the probability of the eventual Democratic nominee winning the general election has not fallen with Trump’s fall is because it is tightly correlated with Trump and Cruz, not just Trump. Cruz’ conditional probability of victory has been consistently lower than Trump’s! Also, conditional on winning the nomination now, Trump is much weaker than he was a week ago.

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