Donald Trump dropped from highly likely to likely this week on the strength of (1) Mitt Romney openly pushing to a brokered convention and (2) his surprising loss in Maine (coupled with closer than expected wins in Kentucky and Louisiana).

Trump is still heavily favored to win the plurality of delegates, but it is a little less certain he can reach the majority. Conditional on getting a majority, he is nearly 100% to be the GOP nominee. Conditional on getting the most delegates, but not a majority, he is very unlikely to get the nomination. Currently, we have Trump around 70% to get the nomination and about 60% to have a non-brokered convention.

PredictWise20160306b

Vertical Lines: Election Days: Tuesday, March 1 (Super Tuesday), Saturday, March 5, and Sunday, March 6
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Hillary Clinton has lost quite a few elections to Bernie Sanders, but his path to victory is very narrow.

PredictWise20160306a

Vertical Lines: Election Days: Tuesday, March 1 (Super Tuesday), Saturday, March 5, and Sunday, March 6
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/