On Saturday, February 20 Trump won the South Carolina primary and Marco Rubio came in second. This expected, but (1) Trump won bigger than expected, (2) with was pretty devastating for Ted Cruz. If Cruz had any reach, he would have taken, at least, second in South Carolina.

On Tuesday, February 23 Trump won the Nevada Caucus and Rubio came in second. Again this was expected, but again, the size was impressive.

On Thursday, February 25 Rubio rebounded by going on the offensive against Trump in the Texas debate.

On Friday, February 26 Trump countered with his first real endorsement, Chris Christie.

And that is how Trump went from 50% to 80% likely to take the GOP nomination! He is favored to win all of the next weeks voting with exception of Texas and Puerto Rico. But, with proportional delegate allocation, Rubio still has a path if he starts winning the following week!


Vertical Lines: Saturday, February 20 South Carolina Primary; Tuesday, February 23 Nevada Primary
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Hillary Clinton took both Nevada and South Carolina. But, the key victory was the size of the South Carolina victory. Clinton is favored in all states but Maine and Vermont over the next week. If she does win those states, look for Bernie Sanders to drop out.


Vertical Lines: Saturday, February 20 Nevada Caucus; Saturday, February 27 South Carolina Parimary
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/