An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing during the eighth Republican debate. But, he is still the most likely Republican to win the nomination. Ted Cruz, the actual winner of Iowa, was pretty flat. On the Democratic side, despite a tight Iowa election, Hillary Clinton is still about 85% to win the nomination over Bernie Sanders.
1) Trump is favored at 75% to win New Hampshire. This is all about the second and third place finishes. If he loses New Hampshire his election is over.
2) Marco Rubio needs a strong second place to kick start his momentum. A strong second place will diminish the importance of his weak debate performance (of course, this is a good place to note that Rubio was praised for just repeating talking points and stump speak in the previous 7 debates, but this debate Chris Christie made him look stupid doing it!) on Saturday, February 6.
3) The three governors, Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich will separate themselves after this election. They spend the last debate praising each other and bashing Rubio; helping Trump, who no one bothered to address. Only one of them could continue and plausibly contend they are not campaigning for a Trump nomination. The longer they stay in the race more likely Trump is to win, but one of them, could leave New Hampshire with a shot at toppling Rubio.
4) Cruz’s position is irrelevant, because he is not expected to challenge in New Hamshire.
Vertical Lines: Thursday, January 28 debate (without Trump); Monday, February 1 Iowa Caucus; Saturday, February 6 debate
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/
Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire. The interesting question is going to be South Carolina and Nevada. Clinton is still very strong there and the markets are expecting her to start surging ahead with wins in those two states.
Vertical Lines: Monday, February 1 Iowa Caucus; Thursday, February 4 debate
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/