The previous week was punctuated by Scott Walker dropping out of the race for the GOP nomination on Monday, September 21 and Marco Rubio taking up all of his likelihood for victory (and some).
The key date is Wednesday, September 16, which was the second presidential debate for the GOP. Walker never got his voice and he consequently dropped out of the race the following Monday. Rubio, who like Walker is an establishment conservative, began taking some of Walker’s likelihood right after the debate, but he really scaled upwards after Walker formally dropped out. Much of this is anticipation of him taking his: money, endorsements, and voters.
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination
Jeb Bush, the most prominent of the establishment candidates, has been holding steady through all of this. On one side of the ledger he benefits from the non-establishment candidates continuing to have strong popularity in the polls. The longer they linger at the top, the less time the establishment has to coalesce around another establishment candidate. The other side of the ledger shows a weak debater who, in the last week, doubled down on his brother’s legacy (by talking about him keeping us safe) and Romney’s legacy (by talking about how black voters want “free stuff”). Both of which could work in the GOP primary, but certainly put him an awkward position for any possible general election.
The markets is still unimpressed with the three non-establishment candidates: Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson. They are currently trading at 12%, 10%, and 6% respectively. Trump has dipped a bit as his poll numbers have gone down. Carson has fallen in anticipation of his poll numbers dropping. While Fiorina is up slightly on the expectation of rising poll numbers.
In the Democratic nomination race, everything is waiting on two things. First, will Joe Biden run? He is up to 20% with about 50% likelihood he will enter the race. Second, in theory, they are going to have a debate at some point? Seriously, the first debate is October 13. This is a chance for Bernie Sanders to reach a wide audience and Martin O’Malley to possibly kick start his race.
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination