If you are interested in the Republican nomination, but not a regular reader of PredictWise, this chart will feel like the standard narrative of the race; it shows the aggregated polling averages from Huffington Post’s Pollster. (1) Donald Trump is dominating, but flat at a few points shy of 40. (2) Ben Carson was in second place through mid-November, but then fell behind. (3) Ted Cruz has been in a solid second place since mid-December. (4) Marco Rubio has pulled into a solid third place since after the Iowa Caucus on February 1. (5) John Kasich is now threatening Carson for fourth place (in a five person race!).


If you are regular reader of PredictWise, this chart, of the probability generated from prediction market data, is the narrative of the Republican primary. (1) Rubio was the clear favorite for long stretches of the race, with a brief dip before Iowa and after his terrible pre-New Hampshire debate performance. (2) Trump pulled into first place only after vanquishing Cruz in early January. He is currently in a tight lead over Rubio. (3) Cruz has been sliding toward oblivion since New Hampshire. (4) Everyone else is negligible.


If you are surprised to find us on the precipice of two person race between Rubio and Trump, then you should reading PredictWise daily. Unless, of course, you like surprises …