There are a few things you need to know about Sweet Sixteen:

1) The favored team has an average likelihood of victory of just 61% in the Sweet Sixteen. This means we only expect to get about 5 of 8 games right (in the binary sense). We have been extremely well calibrated so far this tourney, so expect an interesting Sweet Sixteen. But, not all games are equally uncertain …

2) Virginia, the top ranked team in the East, if favored to lose. Not by much, but Michigan State (4) is 52% to win the game against Virginia (1). That is the only game where we have the lower ranked team actually more likely to win the game.

3) Florida (1) in South, Arizona (1) in West, and Louisville (4) in Midwest, our other pre-tournament favorites to get to the Final Four (along with Michigan State in the East), are all favored with between 65% and 75%. To single out the Louisville and Kentucky game, Louisville is as highly likely at 68% to beat the surging Kentucky squad.

4) The other for games are all relatively close, with the most interesting to me being Tennessee (11) as 47% to knock of Michigan (2) in the Midwest.

5) Full list of static, pre-game predictions.

6) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!