2012 President - Predictwise Blog

2020 Election

Fundamental Model Predicts Electoral College Tie

Today, February 27, 2020, we release our fundamental Electoral College model for 2020. I want to emphasize that I ran the data without knowing what would happen: it comes out as a 269 to 269 tie.

2012 Election

Can Rick Perry afford to lose in Iowa? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

On paper, of course, Perry could absorb a defeat in Iowa without it turning into a fatal blow. After all, Iowa distributes less than 1 percent of delegates to the Republican National Convention. And across the board, the RNC assesses delegates on something close

2012 Election

Romney is the likeliest nominee, but Perry is stronger than you think in Iowa (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

Mitt Romney is considered the likely winner of each one of the first five primary contests, but the judgment of the markets in two of the first three–Iowa and South Carolina–is extremely close. As the likely winner of the first

2012 President

Prediction markets show that Perry’s early surge is not the same as Trump’s was (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blo

Perry is no Trump; he has risen to the top in the prediction markets, as well as the polls. This is an important indication that Perry is getting a serious hearing not just from GOP voters, but from political insiders as well. Still, the

2012 President

How can we handicap Obama’s re-election chances? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" blog)

I posted a blog piece on Yahoo on the likelihood of President Obama’s re-election (which is currently at 50.9%). Click Here for Full Text. As you can see, as bad economic news has arrived over the last few months, Obama’