2014 Election

Microsoft Prediction Lab: 2014 Recap

Microsoft Prediction Lab tested the wisdom of the crowd in 507 elections this fall and did pretty well (here are the posted final predictions from election eve): 33 of 35 (so far) in the U.S. Senate, 30 of 36 in the gubernatorial elections,

2014 Election

A closer look at that GOP over-performance

There are 35 senate elections (excluding Louisiana) and 36 gubernatorial elections. We had expected vote shares for all of them, in terms of two-party vote share, which were primarily generated from traditional polling. In 54 of 71 (76%) elections the Republican candidate over-performed (28

2014 Election

Overall Calibration Pretty Good ...

In a preliminary look at Election Eve predictions for the 507 elections, we did pretty well. Senate (34 of 35): I am going to hold out Louisiana for now and assume there were 35 elections. In those 35 election we had the binary winner

2014 Election

Election Night 2014

1:30 AM ET: This is what under-performance versus the polls looks like: 10:33 PM ET: 10:13 PM ET: We have the senate at 95% for the Republicans, but that almost feels generous to the Democrats. 8:07 PM ET: The Democrats

2014 Election

Microsoft Prediction Lab's final probabilities

Five weeks ago I launched a new website, with a few friends, including Miro Dudik and David Pennock, called Microsoft Prediction Lab. The website consolidates research into both non-representative polling and prediction games. I have spent years understanding how various raw data: polling, prediction

2014 Election

Democrats poised for (possible) great night … in governors elections

The Democrats have a decent chance at having a great night in the governor’s races. There are 10 elections that I am following closely: 2 Tough, but possible pickups for the Democrats: Wisconsin: this is a potentially a huge pick-up for the

2014 Election

Republicans at about 85% to capture U.S. Senate

The Republicans are about 85% likely to take control of the U.S. Senate in January, 2015. This is going to happen, because the Democrats are going to win Blue States and the Republicans are going to win Red States. And, the Republicans are

2014 Election

Hidden Errors and Overconfident Pollsters

Written with Sharad Goel and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr Election forecasts, whether on HuffingtonPost's Pollster, New York Times’ Upshot, FiveThirtyEight, or PredictWise, report a margin of error of typically 3 percentage points. That means that 95% of the time the election outcome should

2014 Election

Election Update - 11/2, 2 Days

The Democrats are likely to lose the senate for two years. My predictions have been consistently more bullish on Republican victory than any of the other main forecasters: New York Times’ Upshot, FiveThirtyEight, HuffingtonPost’s Pollster, Princeton’s Sam Wang, etc.

2014 Election

Republicans are going to win the U.S. House

The Republicans are going to hold on to the House. Our latest forecast has the Republicans controlling 237 seats to 198 seats for the Democrats following this election. After the 2012 election the Republicans controlled 234 seats to 201 seats; we are projecting a

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/28, 7 Days

The Democrats have had a few good days in the polls, but it is unlikely to be enough to hold onto the senate. Currently the Democrats are about 25% to hold the senate, up from a low of 20% yesterday. Despite a crazy outlier

2014 Election

Expectation question as a poll of polls

The New York Times’ Upshot published an article on their latest New York Times/CBS News/ YouGov poll which highlighted work that I have done with Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan on expectation polling. The expectation question asks, “Regardless of

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/23, 12 Days

Things just keep getting worse for the Democrats in the senate. We now have the Democrats at just 19% to hold onto the senate. The amazing thing is that the continuous slide is not any serious slip-ups, but just the gradual shifting of leaning

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/19, 16 Days

The last week and a half has been an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats in the polls and their fleeting chances of holding onto the majority of the senate. The Democrats only bright spot has been Georgia, where Michelle Nunn has pushed into a

2014 Election

Senate v. Electoral College

The race for the control of the U.S. senate feels a lot like the race for control of the Electoral College (i.e., president), but there are a few crucial differences. First, the only thing that matters after the Electoral College convenes is

2014 Election

Why Microsoft Prediction Lab

I launched a new website, with a few friends, including Miro Dudik and David Pennock, called Microsoft Prediction Lab. The website consolidates research into both non-representative polling and prediction games. I have spent years understanding how various raw data: polling, prediction markets, and social

2014 Election

Methods for gubernatorial and senatorial predictions

We use really simple and transparent methods for creating forecasts for the gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Everything I do is outlined is this forthcoming paper. The method is unchanged from 2012, but the coefficients are updated with 2012 data. I consider three different types

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/10, 25 Days

The balance of power in the senate is both extremely tight and extremely important. I get that. But, race for race, the gubernatorial elections are fascinating to follow. We have seven races between 30% and 70% and all of them have national implications. The

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/8, 27 Days

The senatorial forecasts have remained remarkably steady over the last week with two small exceptions. First, Kansas has come into stronger focus and the Independent Orman is pulling away from the incumbent Roberts. Second, Michigan, which was leaning heavily Democratic is now a solid

2014 Election

Election Update - 10/1, 34 Days

The biggest update of the senatorial elections over the last few days is the good news for Republicans in both Colorado and Iowa. Both of these have moved to leaning Democratic to toss-ups. Again, nothing extremely newsworthy in either of the races, but a

2014 Election

Election Update - 9/25, 40 Days

Over the last eight days there has been substantial movement in four of the key senatorial elections. The first is Kansas, where I feel my prediction is a little low. The reason is that the fundamental model, which still has some power, is not

2014 Election

Election Update - 9/17, 48 Days

I last addressed the senate 6 days ago and there has been meaningful movement in two states. First, North Carolina has gone from leaning Democratic to strong Democratic. This is on the strength of some new polls. Second, Kansas has gone from very difficult

2014 Election

Election Update - 9/12, 53 Days

There are more interesting gubernatorial elections than senatorial elections. While the immediate national stakes do not seem as high, that is a misconception in many ways. Governors such at Wisconsin’s Scott Walker (R) is one of the most influential people in the

2014 Election

Election Update - 9/11, 54 Days

I launched my state-by-state senatorial and gubernatorial predictions in the first week of August. You can find them on PredictWise updating as the data updates: senatorial and gubernatorial. Most important for the senatorial elections, you can find the expected balance of power on a