Academy Awards NCAA Men's Basketball - March 17 Here are the pre-tourney market-based odds for the pre-tourney games!
Academy Awards Oscar Night 2015 - Why I am stoked PredictWise got 20 of 24 (not 24 of 24) Oscar predictions “right” Our Oscar predictions have been 19 for 24, 21 for 24, and 20 for 24 over the last three years, in the binary outcome space (i.e., the most likely candidate won the Oscar). Of the 12 “misses” 11 have been the
Academy Awards Oscar Night 2015 - Updated Outcomes The most updated outcome with Oscar eve predictions (which were posted at 1 PM ET on Oscar Day):
Academy Awards Oscar Night 2015 12:06 AM ET: 20 for 24 with Birdman's win!!! Another huge victory for prediction markets. Perfectly calibrated with average 82% for most likely candidate in the 24 catagories = expected outcome of 20 wins. And, a prediction markets did a great job
Academy Awards Romney goes for the kill on Super Tuesday (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party’s nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That’s likely to
Academy Awards Romney has no chance in Massachusetts in November, forget my prediction (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) I’d like to examine one rather glaring error in the fundamental model for elections I have created with Patrick Hummel and explain why we’re not going to fix it: Massachusetts stands at 74.4 percent likely to go to Obama,
Academy Awards Republican nomination extends into March, Obama's likelihood of reelection up (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) The longer-than-expected Republican primary has given many more voters a chance to meet the candidates and cast ballots in meaningful elections, but it has caused some in the party to worry that it is weakening the eventual winner in his confrontation with President Obama.
Academy Awards Markets heavily favor The Artist for top Oscar laurels (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Some media outlets are relying on measures of positive and negative sentiment in social media to forecast the Oscars. We are big supporters of the value of social media to understand public interest and opinion. But, as of now, there is modest predictive power