Academy Awards

Here are the pre-tourney market-based odds for the pre-tourney games!

Our Oscar predictions have been 19 for 24, 21 for 24, and 20 for 24 over the last three years, in the binary outcome space (i.e., the most likely candidate won the Oscar). Of the 12 “misses” 11 have been the

The most updated outcome with Oscar eve predictions (which were posted at 1 PM ET on Oscar Day):

12:06 AM ET: 20 for 24 with Birdman's win!!! Another huge victory for prediction markets. Perfectly calibrated with average 82% for most likely candidate in the 24 catagories = expected outcome of 20 wins. And, a prediction markets did a great job

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party’s nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That’s likely to

I’d like to examine one rather glaring error in the fundamental model for elections I have created with Patrick Hummel and explain why we’re not going to fix it: Massachusetts stands at 74.4 percent likely to go to Obama,

The longer-than-expected Republican primary has given many more voters a chance to meet the candidates and cast ballots in meaningful elections, but it has caused some in the party to worry that it is weakening the eventual winner in his confrontation with President Obama.

Some media outlets are relying on measures of positive and negative sentiment in social media to forecast the Oscars. We are big supporters of the value of social media to understand public interest and opinion. But, as of now, there is modest predictive power