baseball - Predictwise Blog

Perry or Romney, polls or prediction markets (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

The political handicappers who take part in the prediction markets are not saying that Perry would lose a primary election to Romney today. Rather, they are betting that Romney is slightly more likely to win when the primaries are actually held in a few

baseball

Politics vs. the playoffs: Why do predictions change over time? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

The Phillies season has gone just as expected, with a few bumps along the way. Why has the likelihood changed? Because the march of time has eliminated the uncertainty that a long campaign brings to the outcome. Then the news of Peyton Manning’

baseball

Volatility in Baseball Probabilities

Let me pose a question that address in further as this blog progresses: What is the appropriate level of volatility in an efficient forecast? Here is the forecast of the World Series winner for the three most probable teams: Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox,