Kentucky is 55% to win the tournament, same as they were before the Elite Eight. They did not look dominate so advancing a round was not as helpful as it should!

1) Kentucky is 55% to win the tournament, up just 11 percentage points from the start of the tournment. 2) The other three games are all pretty tight. Michigan State is a 58% favorite, Duke is a 57% favorite, and Arizona is a 52

1) Of the three top seeds left, Duke is the most at risk. 2) Wichita State (7) v. Notre Dame (3) is the tighest pick with the market-based forecasets at 54% for Wichita State and the FiveThirtyEight's model at 53% for Notre

Day 3 was another day of top-seeds or expected favorites winning … will the exception of the top seeded Villanova. This is a huge blow to the FiveThirtyEight predictions which had a big weight on Nova: a 16% likelihood of winning the tourney going

There is only one lower seed favored to win on Day 3 of the tournament – Utah (5) is 64% over Georgetown (4) in the South. With about 75 probability on the favored teams we expect 2 of them to go down, with Notre

Below I compare the prediction market-based predictions on PredictWise with FiveThirtyEight’s statistical model and the New York Times’ Upshot innovative pari-mutuel betting game. First and foremost the three methods are extremely similar. In just 10 of 32 first round games are

Here are the pre-tournament market-based predictions for the 2015. This data is driven by a mix of Betfair (prediction market) and bookie data. Step 1: construct prices from the back, lay, and last transaction odds, in the Betfair order book or, when not available,