Betfair Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets To illustrate the favorite-longshot bias, assume that, six months before an election, an investor believes the Democratic candidate has a 95% chance of winning. There are several reasons why this investor would not pay a full $0.95 for a contract that pays off
Betfair Death of Osama on 2012 Election A key question in political circles over the last few days has been the effect of the death of Osama Bin Laden by the U.S. armed forces on the outcomes of the 2012 election. Indubitably, the event is beneficial to the Democratic party
baseball Volatility in Baseball Probabilities Let me pose a question that address in further as this blog progresses: What is the appropriate level of volatility in an efficient forecast? Here is the forecast of the World Series winner for the three most probable teams: Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox,
Basketball NBA Playoffs My local NBA team has left us, so I do not follow basketball as closely as I did in the past, but it is hard not be interested this year. The Heat are a huge news story and the playoffs will generate a buzz
Betfair Mrs. Palin's Political Trouble from Saturday's Massacre Immediately in the aftermath of Saturday’s assassination attempt on Congresswoman Gifford, that resulted in the death of six people including a federal judge and a nine year old girl, the media began speculating on the political fallout to Sarah Palin’s
Betfair Obama and the 2012 Nomination ... When you think about 2012 Presidential nominations you are likely thinking about Palin, Romney, and the Republicans. But, as the year comes to close and the 111th Congress end on December 17th or so, I urge you keep an eye on the Democratic ticket.
