PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for

It has certainly been a meaningful eight days in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz smashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin’s April 5 primary, and his probability of victory certainly jumped up and Trump’s went down. Seven days later Trump is right

Donald Trump lost badly in Wisconsin (as expected), but he is still the most likely Republican nominee, at 55%. He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (40% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is still favored in NY, CT, DE,

A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 22 showing in Arizona and Ted Cruz stayed competitive with a strong showing in Utah. John Kasich continues onward, but increasingly marginalized by Trump and Cruz.

A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 15 showing. He won 4 out of 5 and that 5th state, Ohio, kept John Kasich in the game. Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Saturday, March

There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values

Updating predictions … Here is the state of the March 15 election day as of March 13 at 5 PM ET … Trump is favored in 4 of 5 on Tuesday, 3/15. A little more detail: 1) Florida: 80% for Trump, 12% for

Donald Trump dropped from highly likely to likely this week on the strength of (1) Mitt Romney openly pushing to a brokered convention and (2) his surprising loss in Maine (coupled with closer than expected wins in Kentucky and Louisiana). Trump is still heavily

With the Republican field down to just legitimate five candidates (and Ben Carson), Donald Trump continues to hold the top slot. The Democratic side saw very little movement over the last week, despite a dominant win by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. The outside

New Hampshire happened exactly as expected with Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic primary. The only suspense and surprise came in the strength of Kasich’s finish and the order

An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing

This table will update every 5 minutes all night … [table table-id=1612] [table table-id=1613] 11:23 PM ET: Markets now at 98% for Clinton to (barely) carry IA 11:11 PM ET: Trump is still favored in NH for GOP, but Rubio

A quick look at the Republican and Democratic nomination markets over the last two weeks heading into the first votes in Iowa. One thing is certain, both of these charts are going to see a lot of movement in about 24 hours. With neither

With the Iowa Caucuses fast approaching we saw a lot of movement this week on the Republican side. First, Donald Trump is starting to pull away from his primary rival Ted Cruz in the race for the non-establishment vote. Second, Marco Rubio had has

As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 presidential election, with actually voting just 15 days away, both nomination contests experienced meaningful movement this week. On the GOP side there was a debate on Thursday, January 14 where Donald Trump and Ted Cruz

In just a few more weeks, after just 200+ days of serious campaigning, the first votes of the 2016 election will be cast in Iowa for both the Republican and Democratic Caucus. The Republican Iowa favorite, Ted Cruz, is jockeying with his good friend

Pretty quiet Christmas week. Rubio continued his silence. Trump was silent for a change. Christie started to get battered a little, as people started to take him seriously. Cruz made sure everyone knows how much he loves Trump! Bush hangs on, while Carson is

The main outline of the GOP primary was stable this week; the establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie) is 60% to win and the non-establishment (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump) is 40%. But, there was an interesting shift within the non-establishment derby

One tempting thing to do with market-based probabilities of victory is to determine the conditional probability of candidate winning the general election; simply divide the probability of victory of getting the nomination by the probability of winning the general election! But, there are two