State of election markets: 191 Days

PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more

State of election markets: 198 Days

PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more

GOP Races Narrowing

It has certainly been a meaningful eight days in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz smashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin's April 5 primary, and his probability of victory certainly jumped up and Trump's went down. Seven days later Trump is right back where he started, as Cruz continues to rise. Trump is holding his own, because the Read more

State of election markets: 233 Days

A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 15 showing. He won 4 out of 5 and that 5th state, Ohio, kept John Kasich in the game. Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Saturday, March 5; Tuesday, March 8; Tuesday, March 15 Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/ Read more

Naive Conditional Probability

There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values are both imprecise. Second, things change conditional on nomination (i.e., there Read more

Michigan Democrat Primary

Hillary Clinton was favored to win the Michigan primary. She lost. She was 90% on PredictWise and >99% on FiveThirtyEight. At the same time Clinton was favored to win the Mississippi primary at 99%. Michigan and Mississippi had about the same polling average. My lesson is simple. If a candidate is winning the polling by Read more