PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more
PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more
It has certainly been a meaningful eight days in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz smashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin's April 5 primary, and his probability of victory certainly jumped up and Trump's went down. Seven days later Trump is right back where he started, as Cruz continues to rise. Trump is holding his own, because the Read more
Donald Trump lost badly in Wisconsin (as expected), but he is still the most likely Republican nominee, at 55%. He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (40% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is still favored in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI; actually his probability went up in all Read more
A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 22 showing in Arizona and Ted Cruz stayed competitive with a strong showing in Utah. John Kasich continues onward, but increasingly marginalized by Trump and Cruz. It is possible that Paul Ryan, seen as many as the key Read more
A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 15 showing. He won 4 out of 5 and that 5th state, Ohio, kept John Kasich in the game. Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Saturday, March 5; Tuesday, March 8; Tuesday, March 15 Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/ Read more
There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values are both imprecise. Second, things change conditional on nomination (i.e., there Read more
Updating predictions … Here is the state of the March 15 election day as of March 13 at 5 PM ET … Trump is favored in 4 of 5 on Tuesday, 3/15. A little more detail: 1) Florida: 80% for Trump, 12% for Rubio, and 7% Cruz. If anything this lead has solidified over the last Read more
Hillary Clinton was favored to win the Michigan primary. She lost. She was 90% on PredictWise and >99% on FiveThirtyEight. At the same time Clinton was favored to win the Mississippi primary at 99%. Michigan and Mississippi had about the same polling average. My lesson is simple. If a candidate is winning the polling by Read more
Donald Trump dropped from highly likely to likely this week on the strength of (1) Mitt Romney openly pushing to a brokered convention and (2) his surprising loss in Maine (coupled with closer than expected wins in Kentucky and Louisiana). Trump is still heavily favored to win the plurality of delegates, but it is a Read more