Betfair Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets To illustrate the favorite-longshot bias, assume that, six months before an election, an investor believes the Democratic candidate has a 95% chance of winning. There are several reasons why this investor would not pay a full $0.95 for a contract that pays off
Intrade Huckabee and Trump Depart the Race Within the past week, both Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced that they would not seek the Presidency in 2012. The prediction markets had plenty to say about these candidates both before and after they dropped out of the running. Both men’s likelihood
Betfair Death of Osama on 2012 Election A key question in political circles over the last few days has been the effect of the death of Osama Bin Laden by the U.S. armed forces on the outcomes of the 2012 election. Indubitably, the event is beneficial to the Democratic party
Intrade Government Shutdown The table is now not as useful as a chart of the evening. The deal was struck at 10:30 PM and the probability derived from Intrade’s prices moved just as the deal was being announced. That being said, it was generally moving
Gaddafi Libya and Gaddafi The dotted line you see here represents the exact point in time that the UN passed its resolution for a no-fly zone over Libya. The interesting thing about this line is that the price for a contract on Gaddafi not being in power past
Betfair Mrs. Palin's Political Trouble from Saturday's Massacre Immediately in the aftermath of Saturday’s assassination attempt on Congresswoman Gifford, that resulted in the death of six people including a federal judge and a nine year old girl, the media began speculating on the political fallout to Sarah Palin’s 2012 Presidential
dadt Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" The Senate votes today on the repeal of the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” law. News of the vote caused PredictWise’s likelihood of repeal to skyrocket to 88%, implying that the controversial law is very likely to be over-turned today.
Betfair Obama and the 2012 Nomination ... When you think about 2012 Presidential nominations you are likely thinking about Palin, Romney, and the Republicans. But, as the year comes to close and the 111th Congress end on December 17th or so, I urge you keep an eye on the Democratic ticket.
dadt Market to Watch: DADT The probability of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell being eliminated by the end of the year tanked to just above 10% after the Democratic defeat on Election Day. But, today brought good news to those trying for repeal, the Democrats are making a
