There are two questions to ask when evaluating a political prediction, whether it’s from Nate Silver, a pollster, an academic or your favorite Yahoo News predictions blog: A) How useful was the prediction the day before the election? B) How useful was

The senate is almost wrapped up with just one more race left to play out.

Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent’s 235–a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd

12:40 AM: Forecasting that same sex marriage will win in all 4 elections: MD, ME, and WA legalized and MN not criminalizing. 12:20 AM: 2 senate seats are now looking more Democratic: Montana and North Dakota. 11:30 PM: For comparison, here

As liftoff approaches Tuesday evening, the Signal will be focusing (like everyone else) on a small handful of states whose outcomes are not certain or nearly certain well before polls close. Here’s a viewer’s guide: The no-drama states There are

In addition to providing comprehensive election news and real-time results, Bing Elections also provides unique social media insights and analysis. And as we count down to Election Day, social media buzz on the candidates, parties, issues, results and more are only intensifying. As a

In the last two days, six new polls of Ohio voters have been released, five of which favor President Barack Obama, by leads of 6 points, 4 points, 4 points, 3 points and 2 points. The last reports a tie, from right-leaning Rasmussen, which

In the last two days, six new polls of Ohio voters have been released, five of which favor President Barack Obama, by leads of 6 points, 4 points, 4 points, 3 points and 2 points. The last reports a tie, from right-leaning Rasmussen, which

In the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, the pivotal state of Ohio showed slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. But, when asked who they expect to win Ohio, the same respondents predicted Obama would win their state. Justin Wolfers and I have conducted an

Since the final presidential debate, 15 polls have surveyed voter opinion in Ohio, the state that is more likely than any other to determine the election. President Barack Obama leads former Gov. Mitt Romney in 13 of them. The candidates tied in one, and

Any way you slice it, Obama is leading in states that account for well over 270 electoral votes. As we’ve said a million times before, Obama needs only Ohio, Florida or Virginia to prevent Romney from reaching 270 electoral votes in most

If this election is starting to feel interminable, Sunday was an incredible anniversary: Oct. 28, 2012, was the one-year anniversary of the filing date for the New Hampshire primary. I do not want to sell the election season short. The official campaign began a

Most political polls and pundits declared Governor Romney the runaway victor of the first presidential debate, while President Obama was generally credited with winning the second and third debates. However, what matters is not winning or losing debates, but whether the candidates won or

There is a lot of concern in the media and political circles about the effects of poll results on voters. In late September, when Obama was dominating the polls, Republicans latched onto the idea that the polling industry was skewing polls in Obama’

We switched Indiana to a possible pickup for Democrats earlier this month, but at the time it had the longest odds for Democrats of the five Republican-leaning seats still in play. There’s a lot of daylight between these two suffering Republican campaigns

Since mid-February most states have drifted slowly toward their initial favorite. Even in early May, many states provided the whiff of promise with a 10 or even 20 percent likelihood of being picked off by the trailing candidate. This has not been a year

We’ll know in a few days how much “Monday Night Football,” Game 7 of the National League Championship Series, and Anything-Else-but-a-Foreign-Policy-Lecture detracted from the TV audience Monday night. The Signal does not particularly care about this factor, because the final

Confused by the incredible movement and variation in the daily stream of national popular vote polls? The Xbox/YouGov panel is your antidote to the noise; the panel paints a very clear picture of how the vote intentions of Xbox LIVE users have changed

To be clear, we don’t necessarily think Romney will win the popular vote. Standing in national polls does not predict actual vote share, and those polls are swinging back in the president’s favor. Romney’s odds of winning a

Woody Allen is often quoted as saying that “80 percent of success is showing up.” Hackneyed though this expression has become, it applies quite accurately to the election as it stands today. President Barack Obama showed up at the debate on Tuesday

Xbox, in conjunction with the polling company YouGov, has launched a new poll for this election cycle. The goal of the poll is threefold. First, Xbox wants to create an engaging product for its users. Second, the polling team wants to be able to

The Democrats currently control 53 of 100 seats in the Senate. Nearly half of those—23—are up for re-election this year, while the Republicans are defending only 10 seats. That fact, combined with an electorate none too pleased with incumbents, made for a

Both campaigns declared victory in last night’s debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan, with Democrats focusing on Biden’s passion and Republicans focusing on Biden’s aggression. Neither acknowledged that it is a futile point. Immediate

Debates have a reach beyond the immediate bump or slide in the polls as they seep into the narrative and offer up ammunition for campaign commercials. With nearly two full weeks until the next presidential debate, the results of this one have a long