2020 Election Political Campaigns Crucial Pivot to Social Media Advertising Saying that things are normal right now would be a drastic understatement, especially in politics, and even more so in the digital space. We are right in the middle of a very important election, while also dealing with a global pandemic; things could not
politics Why we won the election forecasting game (Syndicated n Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) There are two questions to ask when evaluating a political prediction, whether it’s from Nate Silver, a pollster, an academic or your favorite Yahoo News predictions blog: A) How useful was the prediction the day before the election? B) How useful was
politics Wednesday Update (Syndicated n Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) The senate is almost wrapped up with just one more race left to play out.
politics Forecast goes 50-50 with Florida outstanding (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent’s 235–a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd
politics Election Night Scoreboards (Syndicated on Yahoo's "The Signal" Blog) 12:40 AM: Forecasting that same sex marriage will win in all 4 elections: MD, ME, and WA legalized and MN not criminalizing. 12:20 AM: 2 senate seats are now looking more Democratic: Montana and North Dakota. 11:30 PM: For comparison, here
politics A guide to watching election results (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) As liftoff approaches Tuesday evening, the Signal will be focusing (like everyone else) on a small handful of states whose outcomes are not certain or nearly certain well before polls close. Here’s a viewer’s guide: The no-drama states There are
politics Bing Elections: Behind the Bing Elections Social Media Analysis (Originally posted on Bing.com) In addition to providing comprehensive election news and real-time results, Bing Elections also provides unique social media insights and analysis. And as we count down to Election Day, social media buzz on the candidates, parties, issues, results and more are only intensifying. As a
politics Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) In the last two days, six new polls of Ohio voters have been released, five of which favor President Barack Obama, by leads of 6 points, 4 points, 4 points, 3 points and 2 points. The last reports a tie, from right-leaning Rasmussen, which
politics Romney camp hoping for a systematic polling bias in Ohio (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) In the last two days, six new polls of Ohio voters have been released, five of which favor President Barack Obama, by leads of 6 points, 4 points, 4 points, 3 points and 2 points. The last reports a tie, from right-leaning Rasmussen, which
politics YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents Expect Obama Victory in Ohio (and the election) (Syndicated on the Huffington Post) In the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, the pivotal state of Ohio showed slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. But, when asked who they expect to win Ohio, the same respondents predicted Obama would win their state. Justin Wolfers and I have conducted an
politics All eyes on—where else?—Ohio (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Since the final presidential debate, 15 polls have surveyed voter opinion in Ohio, the state that is more likely than any other to determine the election. President Barack Obama leads former Gov. Mitt Romney in 13 of them. The candidates tied in one, and
politics National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Any way you slice it, Obama is leading in states that account for well over 270 electoral votes. As we’ve said a million times before, Obama needs only Ohio, Florida or Virginia to prevent Romney from reaching 270 electoral votes in most
politics Happy first birthday, 2012 presidential campaign (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) If this election is starting to feel interminable, Sunday was an incredible anniversary: Oct. 28, 2012, was the one-year anniversary of the filing date for the New Hampshire primary. I do not want to sell the election season short. The official campaign began a
politics Xbox/YouGov Panel on Romney’s First Debate Victory & Obama’s Subsequent Debate Rebound (Syndicated on the Huffington Post) Most political polls and pundits declared Governor Romney the runaway victor of the first presidential debate, while President Obama was generally credited with winning the second and third debates. However, what matters is not winning or losing debates, but whether the candidates won or
politics Understanding How Polls Affect Voters (Syndicated on the Huffington Post) There is a lot of concern in the media and political circles about the effects of poll results on voters. In late September, when Obama was dominating the polls, Republicans latched onto the idea that the polling industry was skewing polls in Obama’
politics Indiana Senate race now leaning Democratic after Mourdock’s abortion comment (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) We switched Indiana to a possible pickup for Democrats earlier this month, but at the time it had the longest odds for Democrats of the five Republican-leaning seats still in play. There’s a lot of daylight between these two suffering Republican campaigns
politics As goes February, so goes the nation (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Since mid-February most states have drifted slowly toward their initial favorite. Even in early May, many states provided the whiff of promise with a 10 or even 20 percent likelihood of being picked off by the trailing candidate. This has not been a year
politics The election is over! (Results embargoed two weeks) (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) We’ll know in a few days how much “Monday Night Football,” Game 7 of the National League Championship Series, and Anything-Else-but-a-Foreign-Policy-Lecture detracted from the TV audience Monday night. The Signal does not particularly care about this factor, because the final
politics Most Polls Are Snapshots, but the Xbox/YouGov Panel Shows Voters in Movies (Syndicated on the Huffington Post) Confused by the incredible movement and variation in the daily stream of national popular vote polls? The Xbox/YouGov panel is your antidote to the noise; the panel paints a very clear picture of how the vote intentions of Xbox LIVE users have changed
politics Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) To be clear, we don’t necessarily think Romney will win the popular vote. Standing in national polls does not predict actual vote share, and those polls are swinging back in the president’s favor. Romney’s odds of winning a
politics Obama still on defense (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Woody Allen is often quoted as saying that “80 percent of success is showing up.” Hackneyed though this expression has become, it applies quite accurately to the election as it stands today. President Barack Obama showed up at the debate on Tuesday
politics Xbox Live/YouGov Polling (Syndicated on the Huffington Post) Xbox, in conjunction with the polling company YouGov, has launched a new poll for this election cycle. The goal of the poll is threefold. First, Xbox wants to create an engaging product for its users. Second, the polling team wants to be able to
politics The Senate is the Democrats’ to lose as five more states shift (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) The Democrats currently control 53 of 100 seats in the Senate. Nearly half of those—23—are up for re-election this year, while the Republicans are defending only 10 seats. That fact, combined with an electorate none too pleased with incumbents, made for a
politics Romney chips away at Obama’s lead, but electoral math still favors president (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Both campaigns declared victory in last night’s debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan, with Democrats focusing on Biden’s passion and Republicans focusing on Biden’s aggression. Neither acknowledged that it is a futile point. Immediate
politics Debates don’t move polls. Debate winners do. (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Signal" Blog) Debates have a reach beyond the immediate bump or slide in the polls as they seep into the narrative and offer up ammunition for campaign commercials. With nearly two full weeks until the next presidential debate, the results of this one have a long