PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more
Donald Trump had a big night last night; as expected he swept the five states in the "Acela Primary". What made the night special for Trump was two things. First, market-based forecasts had him at 40% to win all five state with 50% or more of the vote. So, Trump's 58% in CT, 61% DE, Read more
PredictWise's market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the Read more
It has certainly been a meaningful eight days in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz smashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin's April 5 primary, and his probability of victory certainly jumped up and Trump's went down. Seven days later Trump is right back where he started, as Cruz continues to rise. Trump is holding his own, because the Read more
Donald Trump lost badly in Wisconsin (as expected), but he is still the most likely Republican nominee, at 55%. He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (40% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is still favored in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI; actually his probability went up in all Read more
There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is 0.11. What that means is that if you assume the Democratic Read more
A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 22 showing in Arizona and Ted Cruz stayed competitive with a strong showing in Utah. John Kasich continues onward, but increasingly marginalized by Trump and Cruz. It is possible that Paul Ryan, seen as many as the key Read more
For the #NeverTrump-ers, yesterday was a rare day of good news. We finally got a new poll of Wisconsin, and it showed Trump at 35%, trailing Cruz's 36%, and several points behind Trump's national average of 44%. Even before this poll dropped, the betting markets already viewed Cruz as the favorite in Wisconsin. Yet, the Read more
A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 15 showing. He won 4 out of 5 and that 5th state, Ohio, kept John Kasich in the game. Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Saturday, March 5; Tuesday, March 8; Tuesday, March 15 Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/ Read more
You can use PredictWise to help make sense of the presidential horse race, but more importantly you can use the data to help you determine how to vote. Now we don’t suggest any candidates for you to support or not, there are plenty of other websites for that, but we can help you figure out Read more