Democrats State of election markets: 191 Days PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for
Election 2016 Trump Goes from Lead to Command of GOP Nomination Donald Trump had a big night last night; as expected he swept the five states in the “Acela Primary”. What made the night special for Trump was two things. First, market-based forecasts had him at 40% to win all five state with
Democrats State of election markets: 198 Days PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for
Democrats GOP Races Narrowing It has certainly been a meaningful eight days in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz smashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin’s April 5 primary, and his probability of victory certainly jumped up and Trump’s went down. Seven days later Trump is right
Democrats State of election markets: 211 Days Donald Trump lost badly in Wisconsin (as expected), but he is still the most likely Republican nominee, at 55%. He may win on the first ballot with enough delegates (40% likely Trump wins on first ballot). He is still favored in NY, CT, DE,
Election 2016 Trump for GOP and Democrat for President There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is
Democrats State of election markets: 226 Days A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 22 showing in Arizona and Ted Cruz stayed competitive with a strong showing in Utah. John Kasich continues onward, but increasingly marginalized by Trump and Cruz.
Election 2016 Trump Delegate Math Still Adds Up For the #NeverTrump-ers, yesterday was a rare day of good news. We finally got a new poll of Wisconsin, and it showed Trump at 35%, trailing Cruz’s 36%, and several points behind Trump’s national average of 44%. Even before this
Democrats State of election markets: 233 Days A quick look at the week that was … Donald Trump got a boost from his strong March 15 showing. He won 4 out of 5 and that 5th state, Ohio, kept John Kasich in the game. Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Saturday, March
Election 2016 How Should You Vote Strategically? You can use PredictWise to help make sense of the presidential horse race, but more importantly you can use the data to help you determine how to vote. Now we don’t suggest any candidates for you to support or not, there are plenty
Oscars Donald Trump, The Revenant and Herding in Prediction Markets: A Cautionary Tale In many ways, the recent political history of Donald Trump mirrors Alejandro G Inarritu’s 2015 film: The Revenant. In both, a man is left for dead in the wilderness, only to return with a bloody minded determination to wreak his vengeance. For
Democrats Naive Conditional Probability There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values
Election 2016 Contested Election Thoughts There is a 46% chance of a second ballot. There is 74% likelihood that Donald Trump wins the nomination, 13% for Ted Cruz, and 11% for John Kasich. Assume that Trump is the only person that can win nomination on the first ballot. Here
Democrats March 15 Primary Elections Updating predictions … Here is the state of the March 15 election day as of March 13 at 5 PM ET … Trump is favored in 4 of 5 on Tuesday, 3/15. A little more detail: 1) Florida: 80% for Trump, 12% for
Democrats Michigan Democrat Primary Hillary Clinton was favored to win the Michigan primary. She lost. She was 90% on PredictWise and >99% on FiveThirtyEight. At the same time Clinton was favored to win the Mississippi primary at 99%. Michigan and Mississippi had about the same polling average.
Election 2016 March 8 Primary Elections The Democratic primary elections are the easier ones to predict for tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is heavily favored at 90% for Michigan and 99% for Mississippi. The Republican primary elections are much tighter. The Hawaii Caucus is wide open with Marco Rubio still slightly favored
Democrats State of election markets: 247 Days Donald Trump dropped from highly likely to likely this week on the strength of (1) Mitt Romney openly pushing to a brokered convention and (2) his surprising loss in Maine (coupled with closer than expected wins in Kentucky and Louisiana). Trump is still heavily
Election 2016 A look at 2012 v. 2016 Donald Trump is consistently polling higher than Mitt Romney ever polled at this point in the 2012 election. Below is the aggregated polling reported by Huffington Post’s Pollster in 2012 and 2016. Trump is incredibly flat in his support. He appears to
Election 2016 State of Republican Primary After Three Primary Votes If you are interested in the Republican nomination, but not a regular reader of PredictWise, this chart will feel like the standard narrative of the race; it shows the aggregated polling averages from Huffington Post’s Pollster. (1) Donald Trump is dominating, but
Democrats State of election markets: 268 Days With the Republican field down to just legitimate five candidates (and Ben Carson), Donald Trump continues to hold the top slot. The Democratic side saw very little movement over the last week, despite a dominant win by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. The outside
Democrats New Hampshire Recap New Hampshire happened exactly as expected with Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic primary. The only suspense and surprise came in the strength of Kasich’s finish and the order
Democrats State of election markets: 275 Days An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing
Democrats Iowas Caucus Night This table will update every 5 minutes all night … [table table-id=1612] [table table-id=1613] 11:23 PM ET: Markets now at 98% for Clinton to (barely) carry IA 11:11 PM ET: Trump is still favored in NH for GOP, but Rubio
Democrats State of election markets: 282 Days A quick look at the Republican and Democratic nomination markets over the last two weeks heading into the first votes in Iowa. One thing is certain, both of these charts are going to see a lot of movement in about 24 hours. With neither
Election 2016 Trump v. Rubio for GOP Nomination It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of