Republican - Predictwise Blog

Election 2016

Trump for GOP and Democrat for President

There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is

Democrats

Historical Conditional Probability

I wrote a post on November 29, 2015 on how difficult it is to determine conditional probabilities for candidates to win the general election, should they get their party’s nomination. The key issues are: (1) there is a range of possible conditional

Democrats

State of election markets: 310 Days

Welcome to 2016! The Republican primary was reasonably quiet again this week, as we finally entered the actual year of 2016. Polling front-runner Donald Trump continued to vow that he would invest more money into television advertisement. Market front-runner Marco Rubio managed to stay

Democrats

State of election markets: 324 Days

There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. Meanwhile, Republican

President

Christie’s non-entry is a Romney win (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

Despite the always-long odds against a Christie run, an actual Christie candidacy would likely create a big impact on the battle for the GOP nomination; even without entering the race, the markets forecast that he had a 10 percent likelihood of winning the nomination.

President

Clone of Christie flirting with running for president (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

If Christie runs, he will immediately be a top contender. Right now the prediction markets give him a 24.5 percent chance to run for President and an 8.0 percent chance to win the Republican nomination. However, should he proceed with a run,

President

Prediction markets show likelihood of a Perry nomination is now in free fall (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

It just gets worse and worse for Govenor Perry of Texas. As the dust settles from Thursday’s debate Perry has slid from 38.5 percent likely to be the Republican nominee to 26.4 percent (as of this reposting on Sunday morning)

President

Governor Christie or President Christie? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blog)

Every day that Governor Christie of New Jersey flirts with federal office his likelihood of winning reelection is diminished. In recent months he has become agnostic on teaching evolution, he vetoed state funding for family planning and he has pulled state money out of

2012 President

Prediction markets show that Perry’s early surge is not the same as Trump’s was (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" Blo

Perry is no Trump; he has risen to the top in the prediction markets, as well as the polls. This is an important indication that Perry is getting a serious hearing not just from GOP voters, but from political insiders as well. Still, the

Nomination

How electable are the GOP’s presidential hopefuls? (Originally posted on Yahoo!'s "The Ticket" blog)

I posted a blog piece on Yahoo on the electability of the Republican candidates for President. Click Here for Full Text. As you can see, Rick Perry took a hit in both his likelihood of winning the Republican primary and his electability in the

politics

Mr. Huntsman: A Case Study in the Difference Between Polls and Prediction Markets

This morning Nate Silver, writing in his blog in the New York Times, notes the disconnect between a few recent polls and Intrade’s prediction market in regard to the likelihood of Mr. Huntsman ultimately gaining the Republican nomination for President. He is

Intrade

Huckabee and Trump Depart the Race

Within the past week, both Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced that they would not seek the Presidency in 2012. The prediction markets had plenty to say about these candidates both before and after they dropped out of the running. Both men’s

Nomination

Prediction Markets Working Well on Republican Nomination

Three recent polls have come out in regard to the Republican Presidential Nomination. These polls by CNN, Fox, and NBC have Donald Trump in first, third, and second respectively. Further, they have Mitt Romney in fourth, second, and first respectively. Imagine that there is

Betfair

Mrs. Palin's Political Trouble from Saturday's Massacre

Immediately in the aftermath of Saturday’s assassination attempt on Congresswoman Gifford, that resulted in the death of six people including a federal judge and a nine year old girl, the media began speculating on the political fallout to Sarah Palin’s