There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is 0.11. What that means is that if you assume the Democratic Read more
I wrote a post on November 29, 2015 on how difficult it is to determine conditional probabilities for candidates to win the general election, should they get their party's nomination. The key issues are: (1) there is a range of possible conditional probabilities, which is wide for candidates with low probability of winning their party's Read more
Welcome to 2016! The Republican primary was reasonably quiet again this week, as we finally entered the actual year of 2016. Polling front-runner Donald Trump continued to vow that he would invest more money into television advertisement. Market front-runner Marco Rubio managed to stay out of the news for another week. Look for serious movement Read more
There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. Meanwhile, Republican (polling) front-runner Donald Trump held somewhat steady, but fell into third Read more
Despite the always-long odds against a Christie run, an actual Christie candidacy would likely create a big impact on the battle for the GOP nomination; even without entering the race, the markets forecast that he had a 10 percent likelihood of winning the nomination. Where did that 10 percent go when confirmed he was not running?
The short answer, shown in the chart above, is that Mitt Romney got most of it, and he got it fast. As Christie quickly headed toward a 1 percent likelihood of attaining the nomination, Romney jumped approximately 10 percentage points–from 45.3 percent to 55.3 percent likelihood, where he is right now. Many people saw Christie as the last major new Romney adversary, and his non-entry may be close the door on any other late challenge to the current field.
A look at the race for the Republican nomination just before and after Christie dropped out:
If Christie runs, he will immediately be a top contender. Right now the prediction markets give him a 24.5 percent chance to run for President and an 8.0 percent chance to win the Republican nomination. However, should he proceed with a run, my projections suggest that the prediction markets would instantly grant him a 25 to 35 percent likelihood of gaining the nomination.
If Christie does not run, he may lose his moment. The markets are reflecting growing unease in the Republican party over the current crop of candidates. The reason that Romney did not gain all of Perry's strength is that the Republicans are looking for someone to take him on for the nomination. If Christie does not grab this chance, someone else will–former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, for instance, or some other dark horse contender. If Perry continues to falter–and if Christie passes on a 2012 presidential run–the predictions markets suggest that GOP field is still fairly wide open.
It just gets worse and worse for Govenor Perry of Texas. As the dust settles from Thursday's debate Perry has slid from 38.5 percent likely to be the Republican nominee to 26.4 percent (as of this reposting on Sunday morning):
Every day that Governor Christie of New Jersey flirts with federal office his likelihood of winning reelection is diminished. In recent months he has become agnostic on teaching evolution, he vetoed state funding for family planning and he has pulled state money out of projects designed to remediate the impact of global warming, even though has previously admitted that climate change is a real problem associated with human activity. All of these are going to hurt him when he runs for reelection, but if he stops flirting with the national Republican Party now, he still has a chance at reelection.
Every day that Christie focuses on New Jersey his likelihood of winning a federal office is diminished. He is a Republican in a Democratic state. He cannot make the policy that wins affection in New Jersey and stay friends with the national Republican Party.
He has a choice to make and my advice is to make that choice soon. The longer he tries to be Governor of New Jersey and viable federal office Republican the less likely he is to succeed at either of them!
Perry is no Trump; he has risen to the top in the prediction markets, as well as the polls. This is an important indication that Perry is getting a serious hearing not just from GOP voters, but from political insiders as well. Still, the prediction markets are not quite so bullish on Perry thus far as GOP voters appear to be. Perry is way ahead in the polls (up by six, eight, and twelve points over Romney in the three most recent national polls), but only tied or slightly behind in the prediction markets. This suggests that even though political insiders are giving Perry his due as a legitimate candidate, they are still predicting that his relative strength will wane and Romney will close the race up before the end of the primary season …
I posted a blog piece on Yahoo on the electability of the Republican candidates for President. Click Here for Full Text. As you can see, Rick Perry took a hit in both his likelihood of winning the Republican primary and his electability in the general during his first debate on Wednesday. The chart is here:
The real-time updating table is here: