soccer World Cup

The PredictWise forecasts was 15-0 in the knockouts games (0-1 in silly consolation games). It certainly was exciting to watch this unfold as the data (heavily driven by markets) endowed me with a rooting interest for all of these games (with, of course, the

Germany is 60% to win today over Argentina 40%. Both teams have played well enough to make it to the final. This was not much of a surprise as they were two and three going into the tournament, with semi-final loser Brazil as first.

Brazil is favored at 63% over the Netherlands 37% in the consolation game today. After their disastrous loss in the semi-final game Brazil is likely to be extremely motivated to end their World Cup on a high note, while the Netherlands team, which lost

Argentina 56% is favored over the Netherlands 44% in the second semi-final match. The game starts at 4 PM ET. Argentina got an early goal against Belgium in their quarter-final and then held on 1-0. Netherlands dominated Costa Rica in their quarter-final match, but

Update: 5 minutes after I posted this the markets went to exact toss-up … oh well, so much for thinking about binary outcomes as important today! Germany 51% is playing Brazil 49% in the first semi-final game. The fundamental models that cannot account for

Today’s Games: In the early game Argentina 64% faces Belgium 36%. Argentina and Belgium have both played solid tournaments, but both below expectations. That puts the early favorite Argentina still in the driver’s seat against Belgium. In the second game

Today’s Games: 134 years ago on July 19 France declared war on Prussia starting the ill-fated (for France) Franco-Prussian War. 100 years ago today the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was laid to rest, one more turning of the wheel that would lead

Today’s Games: USA is 36% to beat Belgium 64% at 4 PM ET today. The Belgium team was a pre-tournament favorite that has sunk in probability of winning the World Cup as they have played. They had an incredibly unimpressive 3-0-0 run

Today’s Games: France and Germany play their round of sixteen games today and both are big favorites to advance. France 82% plays the opening match against Nigeria 18% at noon ET. France was a big mover during the group stage; while they

Today’s Games: The first game today feature the Netherlands 65% against Mexico 35%. The Dutch squad was reasonable favorite going into the World Cup, but pushed upward on the strength of a strong group stage of 3-0-0 against: Chile, Spain, and Australia.

Today’s Games: There are two games today. The round of 16 kicks off the same way as the group stage with Brazil 79% over Chile 21%. Going forward I am only making probabilistic predictions on the final outcome, not on the outcome

The predictions were well-calibrated for the group stage. There were 48 games with three possible outcomes each. I took all 144 predictions and bucketed them as 0%-10%, 10%-20%, etc., and took the average prediction on the x-axis and the percentage that came

Today’s Games: USA plays at 12 PM ET today and I have carefully outlined their path to the round of 16 here. In short, if they win, draw, or Portugal and Ghana draw they are in with 100%. If they lose and

Today’s Games: Groups E and F finish their round robins today. Group F kicks off at noon with Nigeria 10% against Argentina 65% with 25% to draw. And, Bosnia at 48% against Iran at 26% and 26% to draw. Argentina is through

Today’s Games: Groups C and D play their final games today. The action opens with group D as England 55% hopes to provide some comfort for their early exit against the surprising Costa Rica 20% squad (with 25% for a draw). Italy

The USA is 78% likely to qualify for round of sixteen at the 2014 World Cup. They currently have 4 points and a +1 goal differential (GD), Germany has 4 points and a +4 GD, Ghana has 1 point and a -1 GD, and

Monday’s Games: Groups A and B end on Monday with simultaneous games played for each of the groups. First, group B finish with Spain 69% over Australia 12% and 19% for a draw. This game is between the two losers. The two

Today’s Games: Group G, otherwise known as USA’s group, is finishing its second round today with the USA 21% against Portugal 53% with 26% to draw. While not guaranteed, a draw would make the USA extremely likely to advance to

Today’s Games: Two of the four top teams are playing today with Germany 74% playing Ghana 9% with just 17% to draw in the USA’s group G. Germany opened strong against Portugal and a good win here would cement them

Today’s Games: USA! USA! USA! The hometown team takes the pitch for the first of their three group G matches today against their longtime rival Ghana. The USA enters the match as a slight underdog at 32% to win, Ghana 40%, and

There is no new data here, but some new organization. I thought it would be interesting to view the tournament by team with all games and likelihoods in one table. I hope to add the likelihood of reaching any given round by Monday morning:

Predicting the World Cup is not that much different from predicting other sports outcomes or even economic indicators or awards shows. First, we determine what the stakeholders want to know. For the World Cup, we determine that it is the likelihood of win, loss,

The United States is in a group with Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. The two of four teams with the most points after a round robin will advance to the second round. I am giving the US about 25% to advance out of the group

Brazil (24%) is the most likely team to win the 2014 World Cup followed by Argentina (16%), Germany (14%), and Spain (13%). The likelihood is exactly 66.7%, or 2 in 3, that one of these four teams win the World Cup. The United