soccer World Cup Recap: Accurate and Calibrated The PredictWise forecasts was 15-0 in the knockouts games [https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/488806423133167616/photo/1] (0-1 in silly consolation games [http://msn.foxsports.com/soccer/story/netherlands-coach-van-gaal-trashes-3rd-place-game-would-rather-skip-it-071014] ). It certainly was exciting to watch this unfold as the data (heavily driven by markets
soccer World Cup, Final: Germany for the Win Germany is 60% to win today over Argentina 40%. Both teams have played well enough to make it to the final. This was not much of a surprise as they were two and three going into the tournament, with semi-final loser Brazil as first.
soccer World Cup, Consolation Game: Brazil to Rebound Brazil is favored at 63% over the Netherlands 37% in the consolation game today. After their disastrous loss in the semi-final game Brazil is likely to be extremely motivated to end their World Cup on a high note, while the Netherlands team, which lost
soccer World Cup, Semi-Finals, Day 2: Argentina over Netherlands Argentina 56% is favored over the Netherlands 44% in the second semi-final match. The game starts at 4 PM ET. Argentina got an early goal against Belgium in their quarter-final and then held on 1-0. Netherlands dominated Costa Rica in their quarter-final match, but
soccer World Cup, Semi-Finals, Day 1: Germany over Brazil Update: 5 minutes after I posted this the markets went to exact toss-up … oh well, so much for thinking about binary outcomes as important today! Germany 51% is playing Brazil 49% in the first semi-final game. The fundamental models that cannot account for injuries,
soccer World Cup, Round 8, Day 2: Will we get to 12-0 in knockout rounds?!? Today’s Games: In the early game Argentina 64% faces Belgium 36%. Argentina and Belgium have both played solid tournaments, but both below expectations. That puts the early favorite Argentina still in the driver’s seat against Belgium. In the second game the Netherlands
soccer World Cup, Round 8, Day 1: Germany, France, Brazil, and Colombia Today’s Games: 134 years ago on July 19 France declared war on Prussia starting the ill-fated (for France) Franco-Prussian War. 100 years ago today the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was laid to rest, one more turning of the wheel that would lead to
soccer World Cup, Round 16, Day 4: USA, USA, USA … USA, USA, USA!!! Today’s Games: USA is 36% to beat Belgium 64% at 4 PM ET today. The Belgium team was a pre-tournament favorite that has sunk in probability of winning the World Cup as they have played. They had an incredibly unimpressive 3-0-0 run in
soccer World Cup, Round 16, Day 3: France and Germany Today’s Games: France and Germany play their round of sixteen games today and both are big favorites to advance. France 82% plays the opening match against Nigeria 18% at noon ET. France was a big mover during the group stage; while they tied
soccer World Cup, Round 16, Day 2: Netherlands and Costa Rica Today’s Games: The first game today feature the Netherlands 65% against Mexico 35%. The Dutch squad was reasonable favorite going into the World Cup, but pushed upward on the strength of a strong group stage of 3-0-0 against: Chile, Spain, and Australia. Mexico
soccer World Cup, Round 16, Day 1: Brazil and Colombia favored Today’s Games: There are two games today. The round of 16 kicks off the same way as the group stage with Brazil 79% over Chile 21%. Going forward I am only making probabilistic predictions on the final outcome, not on the outcome of
soccer World Cup Group Stage: Accurate and Calibrated The predictions were well-calibrated for the group stage. There were 48 games with three possible outcomes each. I took all 144 predictions and bucketed them as 0%-10%, 10%-20%, etc., and took the average prediction on the x-axis and the percentage that came
soccer World Cup Day 15: USA, USA, USA … USA, USA, USA … Today’s Games: USA plays at 12 PM ET today and I have carefully outlined their path to the round of 16 here [http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/node/3326]. In short, if they win, draw, or Portugal and Ghana draw they are in with
soccer World Cup Day 14: Group E and F ... then the USA! Today’s Games: Groups E and F finish their round robins today. Group F kicks off at noon with Nigeria 10% against Argentina 65% with 25% to draw. And, Bosnia at 48% against Iran at 26% and 26% to draw. Argentina is through to
soccer World Cup Day 13: Still no faith in Costa Rica! Today’s Games: Groups C and D play their final games today. The action opens with group D as England 55% hopes to provide some comfort for their early exit against the surprising Costa Rica 20% squad (with 25% for a draw). Italy 39%
soccer World Cup: USA needs to win, draw, or not lose badly The USA is 78% likely to qualify for round of sixteen at the 2014 World Cup. They currently have 4 points and a +1 goal differential (GD), Germany has 4 points and a +4 GD, Ghana has 1 point and a -1 GD, and
soccer World Cup Day 12: USA, USA, USA … almost! Monday’s Games: Groups A and B end on Monday with simultaneous games played for each of the groups. First, group B finish with Spain 69% over Australia 12% and 19% for a draw. This game is between the two losers. The two winners
soccer World Cup Day 11: USA, USA, USA v. Portugal Today’s Games: Group G, otherwise known as USA’s group, is finishing its second round today with the USA 21% against Portugal 53% with 26% to draw. While not guaranteed, a draw would make the USA extremely likely to advance to round of
soccer World Cup Day 10: Argentina and Germany come out to play … Today’s Games: Two of the four top teams are playing today with Germany 74% playing Ghana 9% with just 17% to draw in the USA’s group G. Germany opened strong against Portugal and a good win here would cement them as the
soccer World Cup Day 5: USA! USA! USA! Today’s Games: USA! USA! USA! The hometown team takes the pitch for the first of their three group G matches today against their longtime rival Ghana. The USA enters the match as a slight underdog at 32% to win, Ghana 40%, and 28%
soccer Team-by-Team Predictions There is no new data here, but some new organization. I thought it would be interesting to view the tournament by team with all games and likelihoods in one table. I hope to add the likelihood of reaching any given round by Monday morning:
soccer Predicting the World Cup: a quick primer Predicting the World Cup [http://twopointoh.predictwise.com/node/149] is not that much different from predicting other sports outcomes or even economic indicators or awards shows. First, we determine what the stakeholders want to know. For the World Cup, we determine that it
soccer World Cup: US' Group Stage The United States is in a group with Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. The two of four teams with the most points after a round robin will advance to the second round. I am giving the US about 25% to advance out of the group
soccer World Cup Preview Brazil (24%) is the most likely team to win the 2014 World Cup followed by Argentina (16%), Germany (14%), and Spain (13%). The likelihood is exactly 66.7%, or 2 in 3, that one of these four teams win the World Cup. The United