Election 2016 Trump Goes from Lead to Command of GOP Nomination Donald Trump had a big night last night; as expected he swept the five states in the “Acela Primary”. What made the night special for Trump was two things. First, market-based forecasts had him at 40% to win all five state with
Election 2016 Trump for GOP and Democrat for President There is nothing scientific about this chart. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSALITY. But, a regression of daily probability for Trump as the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee winning the general election is highly statistically significant. The intercept is 58 and the coefficient is
Election 2016 Trump Delegate Math Still Adds Up For the #NeverTrump-ers, yesterday was a rare day of good news. We finally got a new poll of Wisconsin, and it showed Trump at 35%, trailing Cruz’s 36%, and several points behind Trump’s national average of 44%. Even before this
Oscars Donald Trump, The Revenant and Herding in Prediction Markets: A Cautionary Tale In many ways, the recent political history of Donald Trump mirrors Alejandro G Inarritu’s 2015 film: The Revenant. In both, a man is left for dead in the wilderness, only to return with a bloody minded determination to wreak his vengeance. For
