U.S. Governors

There are 35 senate elections (excluding Louisiana) and 36 gubernatorial elections. We had expected vote shares for all of them, in terms of two-party vote share, which were primarily generated from traditional polling. In 54 of 71 (76%) elections the Republican candidate over-performed (28

In a preliminary look at Election Eve predictions for the 507 elections, we did pretty well. Senate (34 of 35): I am going to hold out Louisiana for now and assume there were 35 elections. In those 35 election we had the binary winner

1:30 AM ET: This is what under-performance versus the polls looks like: 10:33 PM ET: 10:13 PM ET: We have the senate at 95% for the Republicans, but that almost feels generous to the Democrats. 8:07 PM ET: The Democrats

Five weeks ago I launched a new website, with a few friends, including Miro Dudik and David Pennock, called Microsoft Prediction Lab. The website consolidates research into both non-representative polling and prediction games. I have spent years understanding how various raw data: polling, prediction