There were 10 lead changes over the course of the primary season in the polls, but the foresight of our prediction model allowed us to hold steady with eventual nominee, Romney.
Sources: Betfair, Intrade, and RealClearPolitics
As we enter the second night of the Democratic Convention, Obama and Romney are tied in both HuffPost’s Pollster and RealClearPolitics’ aggregated voter-intention poll averages. With foresight over the events that are yet to come in the election cycle, our prediction model concludes that Obama is 62.1 likely to win reelection, despite the tie in the polls.
There is a huge value to polls in understanding where the race stood if the election were held on that day; that is what polls provide. It was both fun and insightful to see Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum have their time as the anyone-but-Romney candidate. Yet, most people just want to know who is going to win; for that that, we encourage you to follow our predictions.