Independent (well, actually Republican, but not the Republican nominee) Evan McMullin has a non-negligible possibility of winning Utah’s six Electoral Votes. His victory would mark the first time since 1968 that anyone outside of the two major party candidates won an Electoral Vote in the presidential election. But, it is meaningless to the outcome of the election; if Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wins 270 Electoral Votes she is president, but if she gets 269 votes or less Republican nominee Donald Trump will be president.
PredictWise is currently giving McMullin a 37 percent likelihood of winning Utah, with 60 percent going to Trump. It is very difficult to poll multi-candidate elections, but he is challenging Trump in many polls. And, if Democrats and Libertarians crossed over, it could be enough to put him on top. We will continue to track his probability in a table under the main table which is in terms of likelihood that Clinton carries a state.
The reason this race does not matter for the presidency is that if Clinton fails to get 270 Electoral Votes the House will vote for the president with one voter per state. There is just one ballot in the Electoral College and if no one gets 270 Electoral Votes, it goes to the House; the McMullin Electors cannot swing to Clinton for a second ballot. That means California, New York, and Texas get one vote as do North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Alaska. The District of Columbia would get no votes. The vote would occur with the current House which has 32 states Republican, 15 Democratic, and 3 ties. Basically, Trump wins.
While it is certainly fun to watch, the race in Utah is all about the future of the Republican Party, not about who will be the next president of the United States. McMullin is challenging what it means to be a Republican and conservative.