Welcome to PredictWise!
This site is the outgrowth of my dissertation work in individual-level expectations, forecasts, and decision making. Working with my good friend Andrew Leonard, we have created this site to serve several functions:
1) Provide probabilities of upcoming events created with the latest antilogarithms. These will frequently include aggregated individual-level responses from polls, predication markets, and (once we build up a big enough community) users of this site.
2) Test the latest methodology of capturing individual-level expectations. In plain English, this is online laboratory for experimental polling and users get to play along … it is fun, I promise!
3) A blog that encourages an ongoing discussion of the latest experiments in polling and prediction markets.
Please comment on tables, polls, anything … but, most of all, enjoy!
David Rothschild, PhD Candidate
University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School
For more information on my work please visit My Academic Website.