1) There is now a market for whether or not Trump will drop out before August 31. It is trading at about 8% on PredictIt. There is not much traffic yet, and this type of long-shot contract is a little unreliable. But, I will keep a close eye on it.

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2) The second thing to consider is difference between raw market prices for Trump and GOP. Of course, people may assume that if Trump drops out the GOP is doomed. That a replacement will have no time to build a campaign and win. PredictIt has no difference in raw prices, but Betfair is giving GOP about 1-2 pennies better action.

My thoughts are that the probability is low, but I will certainly keep a close eye on this …