Today’s Games: There is just one game today with Brazil playing Croatia in São Paulo, Brazil. Brazil is 77% likely to win, 17% to draw and just 6% to lose (or Croatia to win!). This game belongs to Group A, where Brazil is a near lock to advance and Croatia 46% and Mexico 41% are fighting for the other spot in the round of sixteen. Below is the likely outcome broken out with a little more detail. Nearly all of the unquoted outcomes include Brazil scoring 4 or more goals in a landslide victory, but the most likely outcome is Brazil winning 2-0.

Overall View: Brazil is 25% to win the tournament with Argentina at 18%, Spain at 14%, and Germany at 13%. Baring a shocking loss by Brazil in today’s game, the tournament will start to get a lot more interesting tomorrow when Spain plays the Netherlands.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.