Today’s Games: Group G, otherwise known as USA’s group, is finishing its second round today with the USA 21% against Portugal 53% with 26% to draw. While not guaranteed, a draw would make the USA extremely likely to advance to round of sixteen. These odds are much improved for the USA following the first round of the round robin when the USA defeated Ghana and Portugal was crushed by Germany. The other games today are the two group H games with South Korea 39% to Algeria 31% with 30% for a draw. And, Belgium just 45% to Russia 26% with 29% for a draw. The Belgium team is heavily favored to advance, but it is not nearly as strong as everyone expected going into the World Cup.

Yesterday’s Games: Both Argentina and Germany were underwhelming in their second matches, but did well enough to keep moving forward. Despite losing, Iran kept its hopes of qualifying for the round of sixteen out of group F alive by only losing by 1 to Argentina.

Overall View: The biggest winner yesterday was France, who is increasingly looking like it belongs with the big three of Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.