Monday’s Games: Groups A and B end on Monday with simultaneous games played for each of the groups. First, group B finish with Spain 69% over Australia 12% and 19% for a draw. This game is between the two losers. The two winners Chile 35%, Netherlands 38% and 27% for a draw play for the top spot in the group. Group A is a little more interesting with Croatia 37% playing Mexico 35% and 28% to draw. Mexico has 4 points and Croatia has 3 points, so Mexico needs a win or draw to advance, thus has about 60% to advance over Croatia, despite being a slight underdog in the game. Brazil plays their final tune-up for the round of sixteen with Cameroon where they are 86% likely to win, 4% likely to lose, and 10% for a draw.

Sunday’s Games: The USA is 78% likely to advance after tying Portugal. They advance with a win or tie against Germany. If they lose, they are still likely to advance. The have 4 points and both Ghana and Portugal have 4 points. The tie-breaker is goal differential. So, if the USA loses and either Ghana or Portugal wins the USA has a goal differential of +1 while Ghana is -1 and Portugal -4. If the USA is tied on goal differential they go to goals scored, where the USA has 4, Ghana 3, and Portugal 2. Thus, the biggest threat is Ghana winning and the USA losing. With a crazy day in group H, Belgium is going on while Algeria is in the driver’s seat over Russia and South Korea.

Overall View: Not much movement up top today with none of the major favorites playing.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.