Today’s Games: There are three games on tap today with Mexico 44% versus Cameroon 25% (31% for draw) finishing out the Group A games. With Croatia losing its opening match against Brazil, Mexico is now in the driver’s seat for the second spot in Group A if they can beat Cameroon. The other two games are both Group B with a rematch of the 2010 World Cup final between Spain 53% and the Netherlands 18% (29% for draw). Today’s most likely outcome is for a repeat of the 2010 final, where Spain won 1-0. Finally, Chile 66%, expected to fight with the Netherlands for the second spot out of Group B is heavily favored over Australia 11% (23% for draw).

Yesterday’s Games: There was just one game yesterday and it went as expected with Brazil winning 3-1, but there were two key lessons. First, Brazil could lose a game; assuming they are a near lock to make it to round of sixteen they still need to win four games in a row making me very comfortable with them at 25% to win the tournament. Second, with the score tied 1-1 we got a great demonstration of the home field advantage with a very questionable penalty that favored the struggling home team Brazil.

Overall View: Nothing changed in the overall outcome based on yesterday’s game.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.