Today’s Games: There are four games on the docket today with Group C and D both playing their first round of their round robin. Group C kicks off with Colombia 52% against Greece 18% with a healthy 30% for a draw. This game is followed by Ivory Coast 36% and Japan 35% with another 29% for a draw. This is an incredibly tight group with Colombia slightly favored, but otherwise each team enters the group play with at least 30% likelihood of advancing. Group D features Uruguay 67% against Costa Rica 10% and 23% for a draw. But, the most anticipated game of the day is England 34% versus Italy 33% and 33% for a draw; this game is as evenly matched as they get! Amazingly I have England, Italy, and Uruguay as virtually all tied at 66% to make the round of sixteen.

Yesterday’s Games: The Mexico and Chile victories were as expected yesterday, but the blowout of the Netherlands over Spain was quite the experience. Obviously, the Dutch, 2010’s finalists, were not negligible to beat Spain, but a 5-1 thrashing was certainly a low probability event (disclaimer is that once the game gets really bad, the last few goals are not necessarily as meaningful).

Overall View: Spain is only slightly less likely to beat Chile in their head-to-head game than prior to their blowout loss. Chile itself did not look spectacular in beating the unfortunate Aussie team. But, with that win now being critical to advancement, their likelihood of advancing is now down to 50% and their likelihood of the top seed in the group is also down. Thus, it unsurprising that their likelihood of victory in the tournament is down by well over 50%. Much of their likelihood was sopped up by the Netherland, now almost assured to advance and likely to take the top position from Group B.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.