Today’s Games: There are three games today and the early prediction is that they will not be as thrilling as yesterday! In the opening match for Group E Switzerland 41% is playing Ecuador 28% with 31% for that first draw of the World Cup. The other Group E matchup is France 75% and Honduras 7% with 18% for a draw. France is heavily favored to advance with the other spot going to the winner of today’s Switzerland and Ecuador match. Group F kicks off with Argentina 73% over Bosnia 9% and 18% to draw. Bosnia is actually likely to advance, even if they get crushed today, as the rest of the group is Iran and Nigeria.

Yesterday’s Games: The big surprise yesterday was Costa Rica over Uruguay. I gave that just 10% to happen. The 2-1 matches with Italy over England and Ivory Coast over Japan were as expected with both projected as near toss-ups for any outcome. And Colombia’s win was expected as well.

Overall View: Uruguay, England, and Italy entered yesterday as nearly tied in likelihood of advancing and now Italy is in the driver’s seat with England extremely likely to nab the other spot if they can beat Costa Rica. None of this had much of an effect on the likely winner of the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.