Today’s Games: Like yesterday, there are three games and three heavy favorites today. Group B is back in action with the Netherlands 80%, fresh off of their destruction of defending champions Spain, playing Australia 6% with just 14% for a draw. And, Spain 63%, trying to stay in the World Cup with their match versus Chile 15% (22% for draw). Spain needs to win this game in order to make it to the next round with any certainty. Interesting note here is that the likelihood of them winning this game is not changed very much from pre-World Cup. The new information of them getting crushed by the Netherlands is offset by the urgency in which they will play this game. In the second match for the second round of group A, Croatia 56% is favored over Cameroon 18% with 26% to draw. A Croatia win could keep them alive, but it would still be a difficult position as Brazil and Mexico both already have 4 points. Thus, Croatia would likely have to win against Cameroon and then Mexico.

Yesterday’s Games: Brazil tied Mexico yesterday giving Mexico the driver’s seat for the second spot in group A. Belgium looked weak in their win over Algeria, but should still qualify for the round of sixteen. Russia and South Korea tied, making the second spot in group H still up for grabs, but leaning Russia.

Overall View: Brazil’s likelihood of winning the World Cup plummeted yesterday. While they are still almost certain to advance, they need to win four games after that. And, yesterday’s game, combined with the Croatia game, showed they are vulnerable and many of the outrageous pre-World Cup predictions were too high. The four most likely remain Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and the Netherlands.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.