The PredictWise forecasts was 15-0 in the knockouts games (0-1 in silly consolation games). It certainly was exciting to watch this unfold as the data (heavily driven by markets) endowed me with a rooting interest for all of these games (with, of course, the notable exception of the USA v. Belgium game where I was rooting hard against the data!). Below are all of the games, after the group stage, and morning forecast:
All of these forecasts moved in real-time during the games; this was both a meaningful challenge and an exciting viewing experience. It is meaningful in that it test the infrastructure to deliver low latency, quantifiable market intelligence. It is an exciting viewing experience as the user gets to see an objective measure of the value of a key of play and current situation. I look forward to dissecting the time-granular forecast data in much more detail the near future.
While the error was low, the calibration was off for the knockout games. We had an average likelihood of victory of 68% for the favored team in the 15 knockout games. Which means we expected the favorite to win 10 of the 15 games. With a 15-0 record we underestimated the likelihood of any of the favorites winning the game; we should have had every team at 100%.
That being said, everything evened out nicely over the 64 games. Our forecasts in the knockout rounds did not include the possibility of a draw, so the likelihood of a draw is coded in as 0%. The morning of the game, the favorite team was forecast to win 59% of the games and won 66%, the underdog 23% and won 20%, and a draw 18% which occurred just 14%. Obviously, the 15-0 in the knockout round upped the average for the favored team a little too high; all of the buckets from 50% and above happened a little more often than they should. But, overall, hard to complain with this sort of calibration over 64 matches with 3 possible outcomes:
For a full recap of the World Cup coverage, please visit www.PredictWise.com/WorldCup.
All 64 game are listed below: