Today’s Games: There are two games today. The round of 16 kicks off the same way as the group stage with Brazil 79% over Chile 21%. Going forward I am only making probabilistic predictions on the final outcome, not on the outcome of regulation. This would be a much closer match if it were not played in Brazil; the roar of the crowd is important, but the subjectivity of the referees is much more important. The second game features Colombia 64% over Uruguay 36%. Of course, this would be a much closer match if Uruguay’s start player were not suspended for biting.

Yesterday’s Games: No games yesterday! Just the afterglow of the USA’s entry into the round of 16 on the boot of suddenly popular Ronaldo (who secured USA’s advancement by scoring on Ghana for Portugal).

Overall View: Brazil 24%, Argentina 18%, and Germany 18%, my top three teams heading into the World Cup, still look as strong expected (and still in the same rank order). The Netherlands, who started at 11th and France, who started at 6th, are the big upward movers and are now 4th and 5th. Spain was ranked 4th, which was my only team in the top 7 that did not qualify. Belgium, which rounded out my original top 5, actually fell in ranking, despite a 3-0-0 record. I now have them in 7th. Although, they are favored over USA on Tuesday.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.