Today’s Games: The first game today feature the Netherlands 65% against Mexico 35%. The Dutch squad was reasonable favorite going into the World Cup, but pushed upward on the strength of a strong group stage of 3-0-0 against: Chile, Spain, and Australia. Mexico limped into the World Cup, but played Brazil to a draw and beat both Croatia and Cameroon. The other game is hard to predict with Costa Rica 54% the unexpected favorite against Greece 46%. Costa Rica beat Italy and Uruguay while drawing England. Greece was not nearly as successful in their group play, but the methodology continues to underestimate the extremely surprising Costa Ricans.

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday’s outcomes were as expected. Colombia handled Uruguay, who was short the world’s most famous biter. Brazil beat Chile, of course it was much tighter than anticipated, with Brazil needing penalty kicks after tying in both regulation and over-time.

Overall View: Yesterday’s outcomes did not affect the likelihood at the top very much. Brazil continues to be buoyed by their home field advantage (which was not on display very much in a questionable handball call). They need to win just three more games, but none of them are predicted to be easy.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.