Today’s Games: France and Germany play their round of sixteen games today and both are big favorites to advance. France 82% plays the opening match against Nigeria 18% at noon ET. France was a big mover during the group stage; while they tied Ecuador, they demolished their two other opponents, including Switzerland. The second game features Germany 88% against Algeria 12%. Germany came into the tournament as the third most likely winner and continues to look strong. They are further helped by playing Algeria, who squeaked into the round sixteen with 4 points, by beating South Korea and tying Russia.

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday’s outcomes were as expected, but very close games! Netherlands defeated Mexico by scoring in the 88’ and 94’ minute of regulation (for you non-soccer fans the game is only 90’ long, but the game does not end until they have accounted for any time the play on the field stopped). On a personal note, it was a lot of fun watching that game in a bar in Rotterdam, Netherlands! The second game went through overtime into penalty kicks with Costa Rica, the slight favorite, prevailing over Greece. Costa Rica played down one person for about 60 minutes. The red card (or in this case two yellow cards) is one of the harshest in-game penalties in sports.

Overall View: Again, yesterday’s outcomes did not make a huge dent in the likely winner. Brazil is still most likely with about 25%, followed by Germany, Argentina, and the Netherlands. France, pending a victory today, will join the top five tomorrow.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.