Today’s Games: In the early game Argentina 64% faces Belgium 36%. Argentina and Belgium have both played solid tournaments, but both below expectations. That puts the early favorite Argentina still in the driver’s seat against Belgium. In the second game the Netherlands 80% have Costa Rica 20%. Costa Rica is the Cinderella of the World Cup, the only team with low expectations to make it this far. Yet, it is unlikely that they will continue on past today.

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday saw favorites Germany and Brazil both advance, as expected. The interesting thing is clear: the data is saying Germany over Brazil in the semi-final matchup.

Overall View: While I hate to talk about binary prediction, at 10-0 in the knockout rounds, there is not much movement on at the top! But, with Germany expected to beat Brazil, they are slightly more likely to win the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.